During the COVID-19 pandemic, a period perhaps best characterized by widespread doubt and uncertainty, the United States Government seems to have assumed a role similar to an Orwellian “Ministry of Truth.”
Many of these stories below are “glass half-empty”, because advertisers and politicians like shiny happy news, so that is what you mostly get in financial media (unless someone is trying to score political points for their tribe). I’m well aware of the official narratives - it’s the aberrant ones I’ve learned may often be of more value.
Don’t be discouraged - either way, this too shall pass - and forewarned is forearmed.
And always remember to hedge that the world might not end.
Consumer confidence looks encouraging:
The Price of Time | Edward Chancellor & Joseph Wang Haven’t even gotten to this one yet but Chancellor is the best, and Wang and Farley are not bad either :)
Since people sometimes ask, two good new-ish books to read: Chancellor’s The Price of Time, and Christopher Leonard’s The Lords of Easy Money
“This Little-Known Entity Has Lent Banks One Trillion Dollars (10x The Fed!) | Kathryn Judge” "Troubled banks offered higher rates of interest" #FHLB
Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel - Big Shorts and Big Longs (Capital Allocators, EP.325) "If they found uranium today and called it something else other than nuclear - call it elemental power - they would crown this the Holy Grail, and there would be a massive deployment with ESG backing beyond belief..."
Mike Green On Passive Investing Creating Distortions In The Market
The Candidacy and Claims of RFK Jr. Decent introduction. Check out the comments too. The website is generally liberal, whatever that means. I’m not endorsing anyone (other than Ron Paul or Jim Grant), but RFK Jr. is now getting a boatload of outrage, as if he’s the problem.
The Great Australian Scream Excellent!
Canadian Housing - Problem Solved!
Canada Adds Guidelines for Banks to Prevent Mortgage Defaults Recommended measures include waiving any fees for lump sum or pre-payments made to reduce the debt burden or for selling the house to pay back the loan entirely, according to the new guidelines released Wednesday from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada. The guidelines also spell out ways for banks to reduce a borrower’s monthly payment by giving them a longer timeline to pay the full loan back.
Although they pander to “affordable housing,” governments (and realtors) have a huge incentives to keep housing prices as high as possible (they can tax more), including keeping people in homes they cannot afford.
United Kingdom House Price Index YoY:
"I'm very sympathetic when someone says they've identified a large segment of the population not being served by the current housing and mortgage landscape," said David Reiss, the research director for the Center for Urban Business Entrepreneurship at Brooklyn Law School.
"What you don't want to hear next is, 'Therefore, we can do whatever we want to them.'"
"And what do you benefit if you gain the whole world but lose your own soul?
Is anything worth more than your soul?
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