My top pick at the next Sohn Conference:
Come on, gang! Toughen up!!
We have a few off days and everyone freaks out.
Number Go Up
Under our system, the cost of living always goes up over time, and the models are designed to understate by how much.
The last time the Fed's PCE math model was at or below their made-up 2% "preferred target" was in April 2021, back when Joe Biden was President.
If the Fed believes higher rates slow inflation, which they do, why would they be considering rate cuts at this point? They've been above their goofy PCE target for over 3 years and are still a good measure above it. For most Americans cost of living is the #1 problem.
“One of the things that Jay Powell said was - he said 2.6% or 2.7% core PCE is a good place. What???!! You said two!...wait a minute. That's kind of a big range there. That's what 2% to 2.7% on inflation is. That is a monstrous difference between those two numbers!”
"A society that narrows the meaning of ‘success’ to the big money and in its terms condemns failure as the chief vice, raising money to the plane of absolute value, will produce the sharp operator and the shady deal. Blessed are the cynical, for only they have what it takes to succeed."
C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite, 1956
Much more below the fold - more on the CPI and PCE models, Julian Brigden, Chris Macintosh, credit card craziness, consumer sentiment, home sales, Florida condos, Melody on “subprime” FHA loans, Toronto, Chris Whalen, Mike Taylor, Martin Armstrong, Horizon Kinetics, electricity, natural gas, private equity, creditor on creditor violence(!), commercial real estate, Armageddon(!), the Yen, labor law, Nokia, Dennis Kucinich, Altamont and more!
If you’re not a paid subscriber, that is your right, but please at least consider it. And if you are a paid subscriber, thank you for your service.
Services CPI is (officially) 5.1%
The only thing “transitory” was durable goods.
"Stable core service inflation is sort of 2.5%, 2 and 3/4% - we're double that - so the answer is no, service inflation is not low enough, right? That's why this concept that ding-dong, the witch Is dead, we have defeated the inflationary witch is ridiculous. It's a crock."
“Now we're we're beginning to enter the phase which is going to be driven by fear. You know, I was up $50,000. Oh, now I'm only up 30. Better sell and lock it in. I bought Nvidia at 130, oh it's 90, I'm losing money. Better sell, right? This is a very different psychology.” [Same thing in real estate I think - rh]
Chris Macintosh
“I have no interest in owning bonds whatsoever. We're in an inflationary environment - I’d say stagflationary, which is which is unusual for most people to think about. That's why I think everyone's getting inflation wrong. They're like, oh, we can't have inflation because look there's no growth. You don't need to have inflation as a consequence of growth. It can be a consequence of supply destruction and monetary inflation. Those things we're seeing.
The other thing that I always say to people who have an argument with me around deflation is, on an international basis, we're at war. I mean, maybe it’s not visible, and just because the MSM isn't talking about it doesn't really matter. The point is, we're we're in a conflict environment. Show me one period of history where any conflict environment has been deflationary. Show me one. They're inflationary. That doesn't mean that within an inflationary period we can't have 12 months where bonds get bid. Of course you can, but again we're working on a 3 to 5 year rolling time frame, and across that time frame I don't have any inclination to own treasuries or bonds or anything else like that.”
A good non-American perspective of things.
”The prevailing mood of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB business optimism Index”
Signs of Severe Credit Card and Auto Loan Stress in Generation Z
From friend of the show Mike (Mish) Shedlock, who y’all should read and follow. This ain’t his first rodeo.
The idea for this post comes from the Wall Street Journal article American Borrowers Are on Shakier Ground.
Years of higher inflation and interest rates have left consumers mired in debt, even as overall economy hums.
I dispute the Journal’s statement the “overall economy hums”.
If the economy was humming we would not see charts like I am about to present.
Mish: ”The Fed does not see this freight train coming even though it is standing in the middle or the track facing the oncoming train. This is despite nearly all of the charts in this post are from Fed reports. And most economists are as blind as the Fed.”
From Goldman Sachs:
“All measures of balance-based credit card delinquency rates posted their highest levels in the nearly 12-year history of the series in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the total number of credit card accounts 30, 60, and 90 days past due declined for the first time in a year, following typical seasonal trends.
Figure 1 plots the share of credit card balances and accounts 60 or more days delinquent, highlighting the divergence in trends across the two measures of card delinquencies this quarter. Although the share of accounts falling behind on payments was smaller, account holders who are behind have larger balances left unpaid. Utilization and average account balances declined this quarter across all percentile cuts, in a typical seasonal reduction following holiday spending.”
John Burns
I think this podcast is worthwhile, especially the first half. I had notes on it but cannot find the podcast on Youtube, and don’t have a transcription, but check it out if you’re into the subject: The Housing Expert Guiding the Homebuilding Industry, with John Burns
Record high median existing SFH price
“This time, it’s the residents of SurfSide Club South in Ormond Beach crying foul after they were billed over $100,000 per condo owner. Per the new Florida law, all three-story-plus condo buildings and at least 30 years old must undergo a mandatory engineering assessment before Dec. 31, 2024. Condo associations must also shore up repair funding reserves. This law was introduced after the Surfside tragedy in 2021, in which 98 lives were lost when a 12-story condo collapsed. While few condo owners would argue against the need to make their buildings structurally sound, many at Surfside Club South are at a loss as to where they’ll find the money to fulfill these new obligations.”
New Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall to 7-Month Low
"Yesterday’s subprime is today’s FHA."
Melody Wright
“I have been warning about the trend in FHA for some time. That current 30+ delinquency rate is a tad higher than February 2008. Despite the historic forbearances (18 months), 40-year modification, the partial claim and the partial claim and mod combo, FHA borrowers simply cannot keep up due to increasing taxes, insurance and homeowner expenses. Additionally, we know that there were those that used the FHA low downpayment loans for investment properties fraudulently, and many of those are no longer or were never cash flowing. You will see that the largest percentages of delinquency are in the newer origination years and increasing rapidly:”
Shout out to Toronto!
Chris Whalen
CW: “What's happening to families - especially that low-income quartile - it’s bad. There's a lot of stress there. People are selling their homes because they can't afford to stay there. That's not a good sign.”
JF: “Why?”
CW: “Inflation. Insurance. Property taxes. All of the above, right?”
Maybe taxpayers should not be backing highly-levered businesses.
CW: “You will see more bank failures.”
JF: “Why?”
CW: “Because the bank has only so much cash. Remember, they're levered at 15 to 1, so when they start taking losses on commercial loans, 40%, 50% of the original loan amount, that gets painful really fast, and unless the bank has really good asset returns, good equity returns, so they have the income to just clean up the mess and keep going, then they get in trouble, and the bank's got to be sold. You know, it's a highly levered business, banking.
The hard money guys who will lend you money for your beach house down in Florida, they deal with cash. They tend to avoid leverage. You look at old man Hovnanian, and some of the old-school developers who built the malls all around the country? They never, ever used leverage until they were ready to break ground and build and they had lease agreements from their anchor tenants, because otherwise the leverage would destroy you.”
Mike Taylor
“What we always have to be worried about as hedge fund managers and so forth, is management that are unbelievably good at lying.”
“When the government is spending 40% more than it takes in in tax receipts, that is MMT.”
“I still think that sovereign bonds on the long end - 10-year plus - are really un-investable, because I don't know how Europe, Japan, China, U.S. gets out of this without material money printing forever.”
“The moment he walks into that White House - now all the digital
information of the correspondence between the FBI and the IRS and everything else is now known to those incoming - and that is unbelievably dangerous to them, so they cannot allow Trump into this White House.”
“So do you think there will be another assault on his life?”
“I hope not, but it is something that we talked about, and that fella Trump is literally the luckiest guy on earth. He moves so much when he's speaking it saved his life. He's so animated, because his heart's in it, that a fella couldn't focus in on his head because it was moving so much. Half inch the other way would have blown half his head off.”
Martin Armstrong
Note that this interview is not on Youtube due to censorship. The interview was posted on July 1. Thanks to Tom Bodrovics. Armstrong is a colorful guy with a very checkered past, but I do listen to him from time to time for what it’s worth. Caveat emptor.
“You know, the view in Washington is that no president has ever lost an election during war. So create the war and Biden will win. That's their logic. I'm not so sure that's correct, but, you know, that's the way they look at things.”
“Why do you see that there was such a focus by the Biden administration on trans issues? And you see that has to do with this new draft legislation that is being drawn up in the US? Basically, I think it's part of a cover for that draft issue. We've had offices in Thailand, and that's the sex change capital basically of the world. But they're all over the place. They even have a show they put on. It's an interesting area. But they call themselves lady boys. They don't say, you have to call me a woman. And it's offensive if you call your mother a mother, she's a birthing machine. I mean, where is all this crazy stuff coming from? It seems as though, I don't know, you've got a bunch of woke people in the Biden Administration, climate change people in there, and neocons. And nobody from mainstream at all.”
“Take the head of Europe. She doesn't stand for election. All right. She's, she's basically appointed by the other ministers. I mean, they don't want to be held accountable. I put on our site a clip from the London Financial Times back when they were at Davos in 2016 when Trump won. And it was like, you were talking about how everybody was upset. Why? Because suddenly democracy became, you know, populism, evil populism, because these people don't know what they're voting for. Oh, they voted against us. So that's populism, and they suddenly realized that the people could actually vote them out of power. And that was the crisis. That's why they've hated Trump ever since. Um, you know, you should be voting for the establishment. We're here.”
“I believe Bitcoin was created by NSA and floated. Why? Because if the government did it, people won't trust it. So nobody knows who this fictitious Japanese guy that created it out there. If he created that code, why isn’t he getting royalty? He'd be a billionaire. Because he came from the NSA. Do you think that's a first step to get people used to the idea of a CBDC? Yes. Because of the BRICS, the IMF has created their digital currency. All right? What they're planning to do and why they want war is - I mean, after World War II, you can go on eBay and buy all the government bonds. We used to have a bunch of them framed up to show you what happens with government. They always default. With war, they get to default on whoever has the bonds who are an opponent so they don't have to pay these debts. All right? The idea is that then they would come up with a new monetary system which will be digital, eliminating physical cash. And the IMF is positioning itself for, because of BRICS, all right? Positioning itself to replace the dollar. So all the digital currencies will go through the IMF for clearing, basically. And that's where we're going.”
“The estimates I've been told is that both Europe and the United States assume that 35% of the economy does not pay tax. So eliminating the physical cash and going to a digital currency, they believe they will collect 35% more in taxation. This is the whole objective of this.” Which doesn't even put a dent in their spending anyway.
Horizon Kinetics Q2 Commentary I like the way these guys think.
The BRICs Bloc
“The recent strategic expansion of the BRICS bloc from five to 10 members means that Russia no longer depends on the U.S. or western Europe for hard currency. This is unlike yesteryear’s OPEC oil cartel, which could withhold oil from the world market, yet needed almost all other critical supplies from the rest of the world. This makes for an awkward bargaining position. Nevertheless, OPEC wrought significant economic and inflationary damage on the developed market nations. BRICS+ is a wholly other animal. It’s a self-sufficient trading bloc. Whatever volumes of oil China and India might need can be provided by the Gulf nations. Whatever manufactured goods the Gulf nations require can be provided by China and India. The BRICS bloc has the coal, the metals, the labor pool.”
Electricity
“On the supply side, the U.S. produced 4,055 TWh of electricity in 2005. Last year the figure was 4,178 TWh. Essentially zero increase in 18 years.”
This is the most surprising and concerning chart I’ve seen in a while:
“We need not elaborate here upon the regulatory and other impediments to a rapid and substantial increase in electric power production, other than to say accommodating this demand growth by technology companies appears unlikely. There is only one nuclear reactor under construction in the U.S., and the country has an installed base of 92 reactors. Coal plants are being decommissioned. Wind and solar, because of their intermittency issues, are unsuitable to power datacenters.”
I was checking and could not find any nuclear power plant currently under construction in the United States. Vogtle 4 in Georgia did just go into service though. According to this site, the United States has NO nuclear plants under construction, NONE planned, and 13 “proposed.” The numbers for China are 26, 41 and 158. Surreal.
What’s going to power our electric future?
“There is one major commodity in the U.S. that is not at all in short supply, and with which you can make your own electric power. That’s natural gas.”
Summary:
“To conclude, the preponderance of evidence says the past 30-year period of a disinflationary economy, continually expanding corporate profit margins, and continually expanding equity valuations, is an aberration—rather than just normal economic and stock market progress. Part and parcel of these interwoven trends has been the concentration of exposures, and loss of diversification and resilience, within indexation. Distortions can continue indefinitely without a catalyst to trigger a shift to a new equilibrium. Catalysts are now in plain sight, and they’re not “normal” microeconomic or domestic policy catalysts. U.S. dominance economically, and as expressed in indexes, is clearly being challenged by China, with profound implications for corporate profitability and valuations. If one sees this clearly, more informed investment choices can follow.”
(Greg Weldon has extensive comments on the challenges America is facing from the BRICs and China here if you want his take.)
How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt
“Private equity firms have become an integral part of the global economy, owning everything from family homes to supermarkets and cosmetics companies — even hospitals. Assets controlled by groups such as Blackstone, Apollo Global Management and Carlyle Group have quadrupled since 2012, to about $8tn. As the size of the private equity industry has grown, so too has the debt it uses to buy companies, enabled by a decade of ultra-low interest rates.”
More Creditor on Creditor Violence
“AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. has reached an agreement with creditors that calls for restructuring its debt and moving US theaters into a different unit of the company, according to people with knowledge of the plans. The asset shift would move the theaters’ value out of the reach of some creditors and allow the company to exchange existing debt for new obligations backed by those locations, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing private negotiations.”
More on AMC further down…
FT: Is commercial real estate over the hump?
“Imogen Pattison of Capital Economics estimates there are $1.2tn in CRE loans coming due this year and next. Those borrowers may not have time to wait for the return of low rates. She points out that delinquency rates on bonds backed by commercial mortgages are much higher than for CRE bank loans — approaching 6 per cent, compared with a financial crisis peak of 10%. She expects CRE distress to increase in the months to come. REITs have recovered remarkably well. But CRE seems likely to provide a few more ugly surprises before the rate cycle bottoms.”
Architecture Billings Declined in June; Multi-family Billings Declined for 23rd Consecutive Month
NYCB
“NYCB reviewed 80% of its multifamily portfolio, revealing significant issues. Multifamily delinquencies surged by 767% from the previous quarter, with charge-offs growing by 590% and non-accrual loans increasing by 134%. This troubling trend in the multifamily sector, especially within NY’s rent-stabilized sector, has been a major source of investor anxiety.”
“Multifamily Distress Could Head for 'Real Estate Armageddon’”
“David Lynd, chief executive officer of the real estate developer and manager, told GlobeSt that distress in multifamily is in a turbulent place right now. He cited a recent meeting he had with an unidentified larger institution, which feared the sector was heading for "real estate Armageddon….
"The problem is values are down and now rents are starting to decline to go flat," he said. "So they're not keeping pace with the expenses. And then you have interest rates on top of it. So it's a perfect storm. That's just destroying values out there. So if you have a loan coming due anywhere, the value of the asset is just not what it was yesterday.""
Commercial Property Stress Forces Blackstone Mortgage REIT to Cut Dividend
“Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc., which provides financing for commercial real estate, is cutting its dividend by 24% as defaults increase and borrowers struggle to make payments or refinance their loans…Earlier this year KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. and Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp. cut their dividends by 42% and 24% respectively.”
Via Grant’s:
“This week has seen more pronounced unwinding of carry trades, underscoring the concentration of short JPY positioning that is now facing intense pressure from Ministry of Finance intervention to support the [yen],” Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp…
Indeed, the yen’s ferocious post-Covid selloff, which culminated in a 162:1 exchange rate on July 3 from 103:1 less than four years ago, has likewise stung local consumers and retailers alike. Witness the near 70% rise in import prices since the start of 2021, as well as 26 months and counting of declining real wages per government compiled data. Earlier today, a Labor Ministry-led panel bumped the national minimum wage by some 5% to ¥1,504 ($6.85) per hour, the largest annual increase on record.
“Importing inflation through a currency is not the most sustainable form of economic stimulus,” Grant’s Interest Rate Observer noted last month. “In fact, it resembles lighter fluid.”
I hear that Trump’s advisors want to trash the dollar, which would be very inflationary for most Americans.
Meta’s non-disparagement clauses get tossed as regulators loosen worker contracts “The National Labor Relations Board last week ruled that thousands of laid-off Meta staffers were pressured to sign unlawful separation agreements to receive better severance pay and other benefits during the company’s 2022 mass layoffs. Meta’s separation packages included confidentiality and non-disparagement clauses: agreements that prohibit ex-employees from saying anything negative about a company (including venting to your pals).”
Anyone remember Nokia?
“How can Bank of America compete with Nokia as a way to bank? Isn't Nokia, with its wireless machine that goes everywhere a better bank than one that needs branches?”
- Jim Cramer, February 29, 2000
May we live in interesting times
Brad “Jacobs struck his investment at $4.57 per share. Other investors bought it at twice that, $9.14. The rebranded SilverSun, now officially known as QXO, has 740mn shares outstanding accounting for warrants and convertible stock. Yet its traded stock price is now above $100 per share, implying that the $5bn pot of cash has an equity value of nearly $100bn.”
“The $150mn that Jared Kushner invested on Monday is now worth $2,200mn”
Grant Williams in his latest excellent “Things That Make You Go Hmmm” newsletter gave a good visual definition of “dilution”:
Somebody made money here. Others not so much.
Dennis Kucinich explains how the Democratic party rigged the primary process for Biden
“Rules were crafted so minutely that no viable alternative to the President could emerge. Party leaders in a dozen states had discretion as to whether to even recognize another campaign.
Some states’ leaders declared early support for Biden, far ahead of a primary or caucus, to short-circuit other candidates’ ballot access and fundraising. Endless barriers were put in place by the DNC, state by state, including guidelines that state party plans could be revised at any time.
The State of New Hampshire’s legendary “First in the Nation” primary status was eclipsed in 2024, as was the historic role of Iowa’s first caucus. That Biden finished 5th in New Hampshire with 8.4% and 4th in Iowa with 15.8% in 2020 was not a factor, said the DNC.
The DNC crafted a rule that if a candidate campaigned in violation of the rule, including appearances or even internet ads in New Hampshire or Iowa, they would not receive their pledged delegates, even if he or she came in first. It’s called losing for winning.
This rule adversely affected the Democratic candidacies of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Marianne Williamson and, later on, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), and gave rise to Kennedy Jr.’s switch from rallying as a “Kennedy Democrat” to his independent run. Williamson continues her run inside the party.”
Altamont
“The men in Santana were not hippies. They were a mix of Latinos from the Mission District—twenty-two-year-old Mexican-born guitarist Carlos Santana went to high school in San Francisco, but still only spoke English with some difficulty—and suburban white kids like organist and vocalist Gregg Rolie and drummer Michael Shrieve. Their crisp, edgy rock sound leavened with Afro-Cuban rhythms from a battery of Latin percussionists had taken the San Francisco band from a headline attraction at the Fillmore, through their persuasive triumph at Woodstock, straight into the Top Ten with the release of the band’s debut album. They were on fire. The band’s two original managers had overruled their new partner, Bill Graham, and enthusiastically accepted the last-minute invitation to join the bill on the Stones concert. At the moment, Santana was one of the hottest new rock bands on the scene, a perfect, hip opening attraction for the Stones extravaganza…
Santana kicked the concert into gear with “Savor,” a high-energy Latin drive with organist Gregg Rolie pumping fat chords into the churning rhythm and guitarist Carlos Santana spraying the top with his machine-gun riffs. The stage was jammed with [Hell’s] Angels and others literally looking over the musicians’ shoulders. The spell was cast. For a few lucid minutes, the music ruled…
Santana drummer Michael Shrieve sensed the fog of evil as soon as he settled behind his kit and looked around. The stage felt claustrophobic and the audience packed up against it as tightly as they could. He saw one particularly menacing Hells Angel called Animal, who was wearing a coyote skin as a headdress—the flattened, dried-out head of the long-dead animal hanging grotesquely over his forehead. Something felt wrong from the start.
Organist Gregg Rolie, too, experienced some apprehension on arriving and sensing the tension in the air. He was a veteran of concerts in the parks. Those were customarily calm and cool. This was the opposite of that. Rolie watched in terror as the Angels walloped the fat naked man a few feet away. He couldn’t avoid witnessing the mayhem from where he sat, trapped behind his keyboard. It took place directly in front of him. He flinched as he saw the Angels lay into people. Deeply disturbed, he burrowed into the music. The band’s throbbing “Persuasion” had never sounded so urgent…
AS PATTI BREDEHOFT got ready to head out to Altamont, she couldn’t help but think about her boyfriend, Meredith Hunter, who would be picking her up any minute. She wore a simple black miniskirt, white blouse, and a crocheted vest her mother had made for her.
Patti always felt so lucky, walking around the park across the street from Berkeley High School on Meredith’s arm. He was a tall, handsome, charming, stylish young black would-be gangster, a year older than she was. His friends called him Murdock…
When the Stones took the stage, Murdock and Patti were trapped in the sea of people. The tightly packed crowd would swell in a wave and carry their bodies along. They were close to the stage in front of Keith Richards. Patti didn’t know that Murdock was loaded on speed. Murdock had already tried to climb on the stage and been thrown back. The dirty looks the Angels had given the couple earlier in the afternoon had only gotten worse. They were in the thick of the mess, jostled and pushed at every turn. Patti couldn’t be sure where Murdock was, but felt like he was nearby. Every few seconds, a jolt would go through the crowd. It was hard for her to keep her footing.
With the surge of excitement as the Stones began to play, people in the crowd pressed forward and began to climb up on the speaker boxes at the front of the stage and the nearby scaffolding. The Angels pushed back and yanked them down. Murdock worked his way forward. Patti saw him through the crowd telling people to get down from the speakers. One of the Hells Angels by the stage grabbed his ear and hair and shook his head. The Angel laughed. Murdock wrenched himself loose and gave the man a cold, hard stare. The Angel smashed him in the face.
Murdock fell back in the crowd and the Angel jumped after him. He tried to scramble into the audience, but four or five more Angels pounced on him. He managed to get up and started to run away through the crowd to his right toward the scaffold. Stumbling, hurt, out of breath, he pulled the gun from his waistband. He didn’t get the chance to even aim the gun. His legs crumpled under him, and he tumbled sideways, the gun in front of him pointed to the ground. The crowd parted and, as everybody else scattered, Patti was reaching for him. People were screaming. “Don’t shoot anyone,” pleaded one girl.
Al Passaro had left his position on the stage when he saw someone throw a jug of wine that knocked over one of the Angels’ bikes. He was standing by the motorcycles with his friend Ron Segeley from the S.F. chapter. He saw Murdock fall from the stage and watched as he got loose and went for his gun. There was no time to think. Passaro acted strictly from instinct, his lifelong athleticism springing to the fore. Like a ballet dancer, he swiveled around, reaching down to his foot and pulling out the hunting knife he had stashed in a sheath at his ankle. In a single, smooth movement, he spun around a second time, leaping through the air, grabbing Murdock’s hand, pulling him around, and plunging the knife into Murdock’s neck behind his ear. They tumbled to the ground together. Passaro kept stabbing Murdock in the back.
Segeley pulled the gun out of Murdock’s hand. Murdock got up, staggered a couple of steps, and went down to his knees. Another Angel grabbed his shoulders and kicked him in the head until he fell down face first. Murdock turned over and looked up at the towering, raging Angel.
“I wasn’t going to shoot you,” he said.
“Well, why did you have a gun?” the Angel yelled.
The Angel grabbed a garbage can, a cardboard box in a metal frame, and slammed it down on Murdock. Inflamed with anger, drugs, and violence, he kicked the garbage can through the crowd. It was hard for her to keep her footing.
With the surge of excitement as the Stones began to play, people in the crowd pressed forward and began to climb up on the speaker boxes at the front of the stage and the nearby scaffolding. The Angels pushed back and yanked them down. Murdock worked his way forward. Patti saw him through the crowd telling people to get down from the speakers. One of the Hells Angels by the stage grabbed his ear and hair and shook his head. The Angel laughed. Murdock wrenched himself loose and gave the man a cold, hard stare. The Angel smashed him in the face.
Murdock fell back in the crowd and the Angel jumped after him. He tried to scramble into the audience, but four or five more Angels pounced on him. He managed to get up and started to run away through the crowd to his right toward the scaffold. Stumbling, hurt, out of breath, he pulled the gun from his waistband. He didn’t get the chance to even aim the gun. His legs crumpled under him, and he tumbled sideways, the gun in front of him pointed to the ground. The crowd parted and, as everybody else scattered, Patti was reaching for him. People were screaming. “Don’t shoot anyone,” pleaded one girl.
Al Passaro had left his position on the stage when he saw someone throw a jug of wine that knocked over one of the Angels’ bikes. He was standing by the motorcycles with his friend Ron Segeley from the S.F. chapter. He saw Murdock fall from the stage and watched as he got loose and went for his gun. There was no time to think. Passaro acted strictly from instinct, his lifelong athleticism springing to the fore. Like a ballet dancer, he swiveled around, reaching down to his foot and pulling out the hunting knife he had stashed in a sheath at his ankle. In a single, smooth movement, he spun around a second time, leaping through the air, grabbing Murdock’s hand, pulling him around, and plunging the knife into Murdock’s neck behind his ear. They tumbled to the ground together. Passaro kept stabbing Murdock in the back.
Segeley pulled the gun out of Murdock’s hand. Murdock got up, staggered a couple of steps, and went down to his knees. Another Angel grabbed his shoulders and kicked him in the head until he fell down face first. Murdock turned over and looked up at the towering, raging Angel.
“I wasn’t going to shoot you,” he said.
“Well, why did you have a gun?” the Angel yelled.
The Angel grabbed a garbage can, a cardboard box in a metal frame, and slammed it down on Murdock. Inflamed with anger, drugs, and violence, he kicked the garbage can away and started kicking Murdock’s head. Several other Angels circled around and stomped him. One of them stood on his head—the same Angel who had punched him in the face to start—and they walked off…Dr. Fine pronounced him dead around six thirty, halfway through the Stones’ performance, which could be heard continuing in the background.
“Everybody played incredibly. The music was fantastic. Except that somebody got killed.”
Santana, who opened the show at Altamont, said he was long gone by the time the headlining Rolling Stones went on.
Apropos of nothing, an interesting article I came across on GPS Spoofing from 2019: Ghost ships, crop circles, and soft gold: A GPS mystery in Shanghai
A little more color: BACKGROUND: GNSS spoofing in China and beyond
It affects aircraft as well: GNSS Jamming and Spoofing Events Present a Growing Danger
“What we always have to be worried about as hedge fund managers and so forth, is management that are unbelievably good at lying.” My first thought here was the "management" might as well be a euphemism for central bankers and politicians, too. They're all professionally great liars with the best rising the fastest it seems.
"With the surge of excitement as the Stones began to play"...thinking what the connection might be, if any, with the Kucinich explanation. My guess is that things are too interconnected to happen randomly. To borrow from The Boys season 4, Ep 1: We are toys for the "management's" amusement. By the way, I had to re-read the Stones excerpt twice because the story loops beginning with the above quoted sentence. Made for an interesting momentary mind trip if that's what you were going for... and, well, that's special in its own way.
This is by far my favorite Substack. Where can I send you some beer money?
I think there is a typo in the quote from Martin Armstrong. He had to be referring to the 4th Liberty Loan Gold Bonds that were sold to fund WWI. I only point it out because I have a small hobby of collecting examples of defaulted U.S. Bonds and currency (as a reminder that when the biggest debtor gets into real difficulty, the only thing certain is that the rules will be changed).