If it's such a great trade, why are you offering it to me?
None of this is true.
“In 1925, Britain was the richest, most powerful country in the world. Fifty years later they were bankrupt. That's not a typo. In 1976 the IMF had to bail out Britain, because they went bankrupt. They literally couldn't pay their bills.”
Thomas Massie
Justin Amash
“The usual suspects in the “conservative” influencer griftosphere are shouting, “What’s the practical alternative? Trump’s hands are tied by Congress!”
The idea that Trump is somehow hamstrung by a GOP Congress that treats him like a deity is beyond ludicrous.
Trump has been demanding passage of precisely this bill, the one he nicknamed the Big, Beautiful Bill. He has threatened to primary anyone who opposes it.
The practical alternative is for a Republican president to use his position of considerable influence to actually get spending under control. Just once, maybe, he could demand real spending cuts.
Trump had every political advantage this term—a Republican Congress, Elon Musk and DOGE, and post-election momentum. Yet he chose the most impractical route of all: insisting that Congress continue its massive overspending, pushing the United States further down the path of a debt crisis.”
Get in the Bunker.
The co-founder of ChatGPT maker OpenAI proposed building a doomsday bunker that would house the company’s top researchers in case of a “rapture” triggered by the release of a new form of artificial intelligence that could surpass the cognitive abilities of humans, according to a new book.
Ilya Sutskever, the man credited with being the brains behind ChatGPT, convened a meeting with key scientists at OpenAI in the summer of 2023 during which he said: “Once we all get into the bunker…”
A confused researcher interrupted him. “I’m sorry,” the researcher asked, “the bunker?”
“We’re definitely going to build a bunker before we release AGI,” Sutskever replied, according to an attendee.
The plan, he explained, would be to protect OpenAI’s core scientists from what he anticipated could be geopolitical chaos or violent competition between world powers once AGI — an artificial intelligence that exceeds human capabilities — is released.
“Of course,” he added, “it’s going to be optional whether you want to get into the bunker.”
For all intents and purposes, the Fed has stopped tapering their Treasury Holdings.
Live stream of the Fed's balance sheet unwind
“The United States federal government intends on borrowing another $86 trillion over the next 10 years, which is an absolute impossibility, quite frankly.”
“The bottom line is my cohort and others around us just wanted to spend a lot of money, and didn't want to pay for it.”
Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
How many U.S. Treasuries do China and Japan combined own? Maybe $2 trillion at most?
Since 2008 the Fed's monetized about $3.7 trillion of Treasuries, using fun coupons, or asset swaps, or something. They own $4.21T at this moment.
I'm not counting the $2.1T of MBS they still have (they had $0 in 2008.)
“Who's the Fed’s current person in charge of fighting inflation, who now sounds hawkish? It’s the same guy who was buying $50 billion of mortgage-backed securities in 2021, when we had 9% inflation, and home prices were up by 25% YOY. I mean, how can you seriously say that you are committed to fighting inflation when you let that happen?”
Heck, the Fed bought almost a HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS of MBS in just three months in early 2020, using air money, or something.
They owned $0 until 2009.
The 4th Branch of Government
"If there must be madness, something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."
From Pickleball Paradise to Investor Nightmare: Inside the 'Bell Bank Park' Fraud Scandal
“…defrauding investors out of more than $280 million by using forged documents, inflated revenue projections, and fictitious commitments from sports organizations—including some from the pickleball world—to sell municipal bonds funding the project.”
“The point of Economics is to create a language for discussing politics that excludes ordinary people.”
Matthew Stoller
I’ll get this one out a bit early, because I hope to get out of town for Memorial Day, and will try not to pay attention to any nonsense, at least until the middle of next week.
For my 81 million paid subscribers, I have a blistering William White Fed critique, a number of charts - mostly housing related - with updates on Denver, Austin, Florida, Galveston etc.
Check out the Apollo housing report (and more on Apollo), another great Melody Wright interview, Todd Sachs, reaching for yield, FHA subprime, CRE madness, private credit and private equity are coming for your money - privatize profits and socialize losses! Also Jamie Dimon, debt(!), and more.
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