“We know, of course, with regard to the market and similar social structures, a great many facts which we cannot measure and on which indeed we have only some very imprecise and general information.
Almost too much to absorb in one setting. I feel like I've been mugged, then dragged into an alley and mugged again. Great stuff, despite the heartburn...
I vacillate in a land of hopelessness between fear and astonishment. Fear when I think the establishment is smart enough to accomplish their theft of literally everything we each own individually, and astonishment at them being completely bereft of anything approaching common sense and/or intelligence.
Can't wait for the day the first song is "Burn baby burn" 🤭
With all these charts showing "numbers go up" I don't understand why everyone is complaining. Are they not entertained?
ICE went up 126% yoy. Hahaha
40% of those earning over $300k/year are living paycheck to paycheck? Sounds like the market for lifestyle vibes is underperforming. When you say 98.3% earn below that, the thing is they don't count. 40% of 1.7% is approximately 0.68%, so 98.98% ... Top 1% is everything!
Serious question on the 3Y/10Y thing. Yield curve control. I've always asked myself how shenanigans (as a category of human activity) get factored into technical analysis. Presumably and realistically, the other team knows what everyone is watching for pattern recognition.
In terms of indicators (90 day delinquencies), credit card lags, mortgage would appear to lead, but the uptick is off some very low lows. It's just that with so much riding on housing, after '08, a repeat pattern seems unlikely. The whole extend and pretend has been going on for a while. I heard a podcast last week (if I remember correctly Melody Wright who you reference later), pointed out walking away is a thing again, but regionally. What would that same graph look like broken down regionally? Statistical aggregates do have a habit of hiding things.
The private capital and the life insurance thing (previously covered) just sounds more and more like the greed is good subprime doozy.
re LA Condo sales. Here in Italy a 10-year construction works insurance is fairly standard, even on extraordinary maintenance (ex roofing). When incentives across the industry are aligned, less defects arise.
re kick the can down the road strategy. I heard an interesting take a few months ago on the oil price/Hormuz thing. By drawing on reserves while not solving the underlying issue, when the reserves tap out, the spike in prices will be steeper and higher than if markets had been allowed to function and do price discovery early on, which would have created demand destruction, but from a new peak would then have declined towards historical averages, as efficiency mechanisms set in. This is the same logic found in every market manipulation. It goes back to the Dredge quote on the forest.
Let's suppose; Even if we get presented with an alternative route to chart the same course on the map because of a crisis in the terrain, there's always a chance that the map itself becomes the problem, and suddenly changing maps is a risky revolutionary no-no, also because during the crisis it would only risk adding fuel to the fire (Weimar). To avoid this eventuality, the 2008 playbook first reduced the Big Banks to extreme victims in the perceptive field (there was a 2 week nauseating period right before the bailout announcement), which led to a new course (zirp and QE) on the same map, which over time became a same but different new map, even though everyone still talks and charts courses using old map rules and weights, which could partly explain why nothing makes sense (those good old bad news is good news years). It stands to reason something similar will be done this time. There will be a crisis, a few sacrificial lambs will get put on parade, everyone will get nauseated faced with a sovereign wipeout (pensions and welfare), and accept the magicians' solution (partial Gold/CBDC backstop) as a limited TINA course correction to save the little guy, but which overtime will transform into a new map.
As far as I know there have never been exits. We could argue that in the pre-digital world it was possible to be invisible at the margins or fall through the cracks, but the taxman eventually cometh for everyone who's not offshore.
I would argue there had been exits before the digital age and specifically before the creation of the DHS. But I also would say they never were very comfortable to use them.
It's a sad day when a Rudy post hits my inbox and I don't have at least 2 hours to be able to read and follow the links. Luckily I had plenty of free time today, great content. I'm always amazed at the interesting leads you dig up.
The note for Dan Nathan has links that point to Mike Green on "On The Tape with Danny Moses". I think maybe you meant the March 11 "On The Tape" with Dan Nathan?
The audio-only podcast I heard has Nathan making these statements right before they went to that Mike Green interview, but the youtube video of the Mike Green interview doesn’t have any of Dan or Danny’s opening comments.
"Just two years after Stuart helped Mr. P buy shares online it filed for the largest ever retail bankruptcy." Yes, but he saved so much on commissions.
Currently we're paying about 3.3% of GDP for interest on the national debt...while I'm sure that will go up going forward, it's not nearly as high as what's stated in one of the quotes you shared.
This one's a real banger! They're all great, but this one's terrific!
Humbly suggest relocating the Aaron Rodgers content within the periphery of the non-marked down asset content. As always, good stuff.
He saved the economy - 😂
https://youtu.be/3KB54p8_wh8?si=mf5-4eEX-J4DDUew
Almost too much to absorb in one setting. I feel like I've been mugged, then dragged into an alley and mugged again. Great stuff, despite the heartburn...
Thank you Rudy, again for an extraordinary collection of sharp observations, smart insights and useful pushs.
I vacillate in a land of hopelessness between fear and astonishment. Fear when I think the establishment is smart enough to accomplish their theft of literally everything we each own individually, and astonishment at them being completely bereft of anything approaching common sense and/or intelligence.
Can't wait for the day the first song is "Burn baby burn" 🤭
With all these charts showing "numbers go up" I don't understand why everyone is complaining. Are they not entertained?
ICE went up 126% yoy. Hahaha
40% of those earning over $300k/year are living paycheck to paycheck? Sounds like the market for lifestyle vibes is underperforming. When you say 98.3% earn below that, the thing is they don't count. 40% of 1.7% is approximately 0.68%, so 98.98% ... Top 1% is everything!
Serious question on the 3Y/10Y thing. Yield curve control. I've always asked myself how shenanigans (as a category of human activity) get factored into technical analysis. Presumably and realistically, the other team knows what everyone is watching for pattern recognition.
In terms of indicators (90 day delinquencies), credit card lags, mortgage would appear to lead, but the uptick is off some very low lows. It's just that with so much riding on housing, after '08, a repeat pattern seems unlikely. The whole extend and pretend has been going on for a while. I heard a podcast last week (if I remember correctly Melody Wright who you reference later), pointed out walking away is a thing again, but regionally. What would that same graph look like broken down regionally? Statistical aggregates do have a habit of hiding things.
The private capital and the life insurance thing (previously covered) just sounds more and more like the greed is good subprime doozy.
re LA Condo sales. Here in Italy a 10-year construction works insurance is fairly standard, even on extraordinary maintenance (ex roofing). When incentives across the industry are aligned, less defects arise.
re kick the can down the road strategy. I heard an interesting take a few months ago on the oil price/Hormuz thing. By drawing on reserves while not solving the underlying issue, when the reserves tap out, the spike in prices will be steeper and higher than if markets had been allowed to function and do price discovery early on, which would have created demand destruction, but from a new peak would then have declined towards historical averages, as efficiency mechanisms set in. This is the same logic found in every market manipulation. It goes back to the Dredge quote on the forest.
Let's suppose; Even if we get presented with an alternative route to chart the same course on the map because of a crisis in the terrain, there's always a chance that the map itself becomes the problem, and suddenly changing maps is a risky revolutionary no-no, also because during the crisis it would only risk adding fuel to the fire (Weimar). To avoid this eventuality, the 2008 playbook first reduced the Big Banks to extreme victims in the perceptive field (there was a 2 week nauseating period right before the bailout announcement), which led to a new course (zirp and QE) on the same map, which over time became a same but different new map, even though everyone still talks and charts courses using old map rules and weights, which could partly explain why nothing makes sense (those good old bad news is good news years). It stands to reason something similar will be done this time. There will be a crisis, a few sacrificial lambs will get put on parade, everyone will get nauseated faced with a sovereign wipeout (pensions and welfare), and accept the magicians' solution (partial Gold/CBDC backstop) as a limited TINA course correction to save the little guy, but which overtime will transform into a new map.
Thanks for the input. Good stuff.
" But which over time will transform into a new map". With no exits drawn for peasants, imo.
As far as I know there have never been exits. We could argue that in the pre-digital world it was possible to be invisible at the margins or fall through the cracks, but the taxman eventually cometh for everyone who's not offshore.
I would argue there had been exits before the digital age and specifically before the creation of the DHS. But I also would say they never were very comfortable to use them.
It's a sad day when a Rudy post hits my inbox and I don't have at least 2 hours to be able to read and follow the links. Luckily I had plenty of free time today, great content. I'm always amazed at the interesting leads you dig up.
"Jay Powell faced ... the worst inflation in 40 years"
Powell didn't "face" the worst inflation in 40 years, he _created it_. All inflation is 100% due to Fed money creation and nothing else.
Prices may fluctuate, but that's not inflation. Inflation is literally identical to debasing the currency, which is the mission of the Fed.
And the scamdemic was the perfect cover story…
The note for Dan Nathan has links that point to Mike Green on "On The Tape with Danny Moses". I think maybe you meant the March 11 "On The Tape" with Dan Nathan?
The audio-only podcast I heard has Nathan making these statements right before they went to that Mike Green interview, but the youtube video of the Mike Green interview doesn’t have any of Dan or Danny’s opening comments.
One of your best compilations IMO. Thank you.
"Just two years after Stuart helped Mr. P buy shares online it filed for the largest ever retail bankruptcy." Yes, but he saved so much on commissions.
Currently we're paying about 3.3% of GDP for interest on the national debt...while I'm sure that will go up going forward, it's not nearly as high as what's stated in one of the quotes you shared.
No refunds!