Risky Business
Fed Fun Day
"There's no such thing as a risky asset, only a risky price."
From Johnston’s substack:
“No one expected so much uncertainty to come out of that press conference.” - Gundlach
“The markets were uniformly expecting a 0.25 basis point cut today. They had been as close to certain as possible, yet when the cut was announced, everything went down with little restraint. One can only wonder why, when a certainty becomes certain, no one, apart from sellers of the Dow Industrials Stock Index for seven days running recently, acted ahead of it. At any rate, everything went down: stocks, metals, bonds, FX and bitcoin.
The only interest rate that went down was the one the FOMC controls.”
I wasn’t around much on today’s “Fed Day!!!™”, so I missed the fun…Turns out I outperformed 3 of these 4 indices. Yay!
If this was May 1, 1985, a 178.45 point loss would’ve made the S&P 500 negative.
Some perspective:
I wasn’t planning on posting today, but I have enough interesting charts and quotes that I might as well do a paid subscriber-only post, in case things in the market go pear-shaped.
Grok tells me that record for the number of down days in a row for the Dow 30 is 11, in late September and early October 1974. Today we hit ten days in a row.
“US Futures Stabilize After Sharp Market Selloff”
I’ll refer you to one of my posts from October 2023, where I charted out the 2007-2008 and 2000-2003 rate cut cycles, which were fun.
Everything below was written before today. Sláinte!
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