So, a 75 basis point surprise CUT Wednesday?

If you get far enough behind the curve you're in front of it.

Sara Eisen - God bless her - used the phrase “Volcker Moment” earlier, as if some theoretical chance of the Fed raising the Fed Funds rate on Wednesday to 1.5% - when official CPI is 8.5% or whatever - wouldn’t still be a joke.

Speaking of jokes, the Fed did this TODAY:

So the Fed can’t stop new monetization, Fed Funds are at 0.75% or so, their balance sheet remains near $9 trillion, yet the stock market is plunging. Forward guidance!

Fortunately, our leaders are dealing with these important issues.

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Seems as if the consensus is that the Fed still has your back!

Then again…

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"...Fed economist Edward Nelson wrote that the most likely cause of inflation during the ’70s was something he called “monetary policy neglect.” Basically, the Fed kept its foot on the money pedal through most of the decade because it didn’t understand that more money was creating more inflation."

- Christopher Leonard

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"...because inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, the Federal Reserve has the capacity and the responsibility to ensure inflation expectations are firmly anchored at—and not below—our target." - Lael Brainard

fyi This spurious “2% inflation target” is NOT a Fed mandate. They made it up under Greenspan. It’s ridiculous. The Fed’s mandate is stable prices, not 2% inflation (which in reality is much higher than their PCE/CPI models.)

Nobody since Ron Paul questions them on any of their nonsense in public.

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…what's happening today has nothing to do with the Trade War, White House Tweets, the Wall, the Shutdown, Democrats, Republicans, Mexicans, Russians or Bob Mueller.....it has everything to do with a decade of horrific, politically motivated, easy way out, global monetary policy.  And we are at risk of forfeiting the American Dream because of it.

- DeepThroatIpo, January 2019 (new site)

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…the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.

- Henry L. Mencken, In Defense of Women

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Hey, did you know there’s a “Flexible Price Consumer Price Index”? (they have to keep all the overpaid appartchiks at the Atlanta Fed busy):

The Flexible Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively frequently. Because flexible prices are quick to change, it assumes that when these prices are set, they incorporate less of an expectation about future inflation. Evidence suggests that this flexible price measure is more responsive to changes in the current economic environment or the level of economic slack.

Anyway, the 3-Month Annualized Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted (of course) for the Flexible Price CPI is 22.68%.

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• If Celsius were to change their name to Farenheit, the price would go up 1.8x + 32. That’s my joke of the day. To be fair, their long-term chart looks exactly like a lot of stock charts.

• I’m sorry, but I couldn’t stop laughing while reading this: When a cryptocurrency you never heard of drains your life savings (This is not Schadenfreude. It's Déjà vu.)

• So I saw a TV ad for something called “LeafFilter,” like Shamwow, but for rain gutters. What caught my ear was when they said financing was available. I wondered what the rate was. If you pay off within a year, 0%. After that, 28.99%. For LeafFilter.

• David Einhorn talking about inflation at the 2022 Sohn Conference

• What inflation looks like in Southern California: ‘It’s a losing battle’ Of course, the LA Times loves the Fed. Naturally no mention in the article of the Fed’s repeated role in creating massive asset bubbles.

• Rents across U.S. rise above $2,000 a month for the first time ever "My rent is increasing 22% this year” - FAKE NEWS!! According to the BLS, rents are only up 5.2%! Who you gonna believe, a unit of the Department of Labor, or your lyin’ eyes??

• A Rare “Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse” Triggers There have only been 10 instances dating back to 1928, and the current instance is the 1st one since 1943, when the S&P 90 was the primary S&P index. The modern S&P 500 inception occurred in 1957. So it is fairly amazing to see a breadth collapse so unusual that it has not happened in nearly 80 years…I will not put a whole lot of faith in a signal that has not triggered in nearly 80 years. But the fact that we have seen such an extreme breadth collapse the last few days does seem notable. And it sure doesn’t appear to be market positive for the next few months. I only note this because I think I’m one of the only people left who remembers Marty Zweig.

• Google search for “Inflation has peaked” pre-2022.

• Good ol’ Jim Cramer

• I saw this Zerohedge headline: Central Banks Appear Willing To Break Some Things You mean besides the middle-class? (You’ll own nothing and be happy.)

• How about this Kim Dotcom thread…

• Biden Team Points at the Fed as Inflation News Keeps Worsening Sadly, evil Putin controls the Fed, along with everything else in America.

• Anger and heartbreak on Bus No. 15 As American cities struggle to recover from the pandemic, Denver’s problems spill over onto its buses I’m sure glad we’re solving the whole Ukraine thing though.

• "Ukraine is a mild concern in Scranton...locals say something about the nation doesn’t work any more — inflation is soaring, wages aren’t keeping up, labor shortages appear everywhere, government is dysfunctional & the American dream seems out of reach."

• Meanwhile, Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen have been called war crimes. Many relied on U.S. support. Some in power are seriously suggesting nuclear war with Russia, but Saudi Arabia is a good ally. OK. Then again, I remember when Putin flew those planes into the towers.

  

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Another timely Mencken quote:

Wars are no longer waged by the will of superior men, capable of judging dispassionately and intelligently the causes behind them and the effects flowing out of them. They are now begun by first throwing a mob into a panic; they are ended only when it has spent its ferine fury.

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Unfair and balanced:

"Bush II was actually the disastrous presidency that current liberals claim that Trump is. The enormity of the Iraq War fiasco alone boggles the mind."

- Tanner Hauser

"Eric Holder is the guy who worked for a corporate law firm that represents Wall St firms, then he went into government and explicitly outlined a “too big to jail” policy for Wall St firms, and then he left government to go back to the same law firm."

- from a deleted tweet I jotted down by (I think) David Sirota

fugazi

“I underestimated perfidy of the financial elite.” - @pdxsag

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