The numbers don’t pencil any more

Mind the bid/ask gap.

“We are on the cusp of a material wave of distressed debt.  It’s baked into the cake and cannot be avoided by any combination of monetary and fiscal policy, insouciant disregard or magic dust…If you think you see a bridge returning to the zero bound, it’s a pier; it’s an illusion.  It’s time to embrace the fact that we are confronting a substantial volume of mortgage debt across the CRE space that neither works nor will work for a very considerable period of time.  It’s time to adjust strategies and think hard about finding the pony in that manure-filled stall.   That is our reality.”

- Rick Jones, Dechert

If you want a very simple crash course of what's wrong with the Fed, here are a couple suggestions you could easily read in an hour:

• Chris Leonard (author of The Lords of Easy Money) article from late 2021

• Book review of Edward Chancellor's "The Price of Time"

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