I'm a huge fan of Grant Williams. He is a great thinker in my opinion and a mind for this generation. Whatever we think about what's happening we are living "real-time" in history. And, thank you.
Another great collection of commentary on the essence of our time. And it foreshadows worse to follow. A fascinating period...
The Boston construction numbers make no sense and probably embody some underlying distortions, eg South Station at 1Msf was started maybe 3 years ago and is just being completed. Some other buildings are getting upgraded/partially repurposed. The number of actual starts has to be approaching zero and if not will get there soon enough.
On Trump…I have wondered if his experience as a”Trump 1” just left him jaded about the office itself. I mean, the hyenas attacked from day one, and never really let him “be the president “…..I wonder if “Trump 2” is just him kinda saying “Oh yeah, well how do you like me now?”.
It is amazing the resources the Deep State threw at him and yet here he is. If they’d put 1/10 of that against anyone else they’d be in Federsl prison for life.
A great podcast on Rome until the fall on the Empire is "The History of Rome" by Mike Duncan. 179 episodes but only about 25-30 minutes each. Here's a link to Sulla:
when you post Net Notional CDS Swaps is $3.9 bill and 1% chance of default, does that imply the amount of underlying debt being covered is about $390 billion or is that only $3.9 bill covered?
Good question. I was wondering if the payoff is 80 to 1, is the implied risk $312B? I'm not in the U.S. govt CDS market - I'll add a question to my post.
Interesting on home prices - one point I hadn't realized until I understood it, but all this Dodd Frank as Basel crap discourages non collateralized lending. Thus much credit creation by the banks has been against things and stuff as opposed to say "productive" lending for growth. The former leads to asset price inflation (banks printing money to buy homes) and the latter to actual economic growth. Of course ZIRP makes it even crazier (because the math is good).
Lacy Hunt in my Cinco de Mayo post: “my view is that the forward guidance has resulted in a shift of investable funds from the real economy to the financial economy by giving too much weight to the stock market, so whenever the equity markets begin to waffle, they come in and support it, and they've created this impression that financial investments in equities are higher returning, more liquid and safer assets than investment in plants and equipment. It has caused a reallocation from the hard assets that raise the standard of living, into financial assets which serve us very poorly.”
After the tariff news, India-Pakistan deal, etc. I think I’ve found the theme song of the Trump administration
https://youtu.be/cc6ymS4NGxg?si=_NZlwK1j0GMcF5kj
Or “Welcome Back My Friends to the Show That Never Ends”
This will cheer you up :) https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tyranny-today/id1708840168?i=1000707980018
I am cheerful!
https://youtu.be/D4d1GzgnhkI?si=44jieePr1m1bzRe3
Have you heard the Digitally Remastered Old Song by The Grifters ? :)
https://open.substack.com/pub/bobeunlimited/p/party-on-garth?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-trump-family-crypto-business-meme-coin-conflict-interest-buying-7e841401
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-family-business-gulf-06792821
Good Interview, equal opportunity stream of consciousness:) https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/state-of-the-markets/id1301360737?i=1000707992414
I'm a huge fan of Grant Williams. He is a great thinker in my opinion and a mind for this generation. Whatever we think about what's happening we are living "real-time" in history. And, thank you.
Another great collection of commentary on the essence of our time. And it foreshadows worse to follow. A fascinating period...
The Boston construction numbers make no sense and probably embody some underlying distortions, eg South Station at 1Msf was started maybe 3 years ago and is just being completed. Some other buildings are getting upgraded/partially repurposed. The number of actual starts has to be approaching zero and if not will get there soon enough.
On Trump…I have wondered if his experience as a”Trump 1” just left him jaded about the office itself. I mean, the hyenas attacked from day one, and never really let him “be the president “…..I wonder if “Trump 2” is just him kinda saying “Oh yeah, well how do you like me now?”.
It is amazing the resources the Deep State threw at him and yet here he is. If they’d put 1/10 of that against anyone else they’d be in Federsl prison for life.
Rudy riles the folks, again :) Feel so much better after reading, you’ll need another drink :)
https://youtu.be/7iy3d-i6IQE?si=pm1v0i6ETq1iZAoc
A great podcast on Rome until the fall on the Empire is "The History of Rome" by Mike Duncan. 179 episodes but only about 25-30 minutes each. Here's a link to Sulla:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2DOoTzTr9LrMrAaQWJMlND?si=814d8afb96184a88
I have had that feed in my podcast queue forever but admit I have never gotten to it…
Lots a rhyming with today both socially and economically.
so Star Wars and all that shyt about the EMPIRE was really all about 21st century Earth
when you post Net Notional CDS Swaps is $3.9 bill and 1% chance of default, does that imply the amount of underlying debt being covered is about $390 billion or is that only $3.9 bill covered?
sounds like the first but checking
Good question. I was wondering if the payoff is 80 to 1, is the implied risk $312B? I'm not in the U.S. govt CDS market - I'll add a question to my post.
I did not know about King Curtis - what an amazing sound.
I like his smoky ballads best.
Interesting on home prices - one point I hadn't realized until I understood it, but all this Dodd Frank as Basel crap discourages non collateralized lending. Thus much credit creation by the banks has been against things and stuff as opposed to say "productive" lending for growth. The former leads to asset price inflation (banks printing money to buy homes) and the latter to actual economic growth. Of course ZIRP makes it even crazier (because the math is good).
Lacy Hunt in my Cinco de Mayo post: “my view is that the forward guidance has resulted in a shift of investable funds from the real economy to the financial economy by giving too much weight to the stock market, so whenever the equity markets begin to waffle, they come in and support it, and they've created this impression that financial investments in equities are higher returning, more liquid and safer assets than investment in plants and equipment. It has caused a reallocation from the hard assets that raise the standard of living, into financial assets which serve us very poorly.”
we should all be praying for a direct asteroid hit on the FED or its equivalent