You can't taper a Ponzi...

Remember to vote on Wednesday.

“I need to be right seven out of ten times, but more important than my need to be right, I need not to be very wrong.” - Sam Zell

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…because INFLATION IS ULTIMATELY A MONETARY PHENOMENON, the Federal Reserve has the capacity and the responsibility to ensure inflation expectations are firmly anchored at—and not below—our target. - Lael “Milton” Brainard, May 2019

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Valley housing market (Phoenix) cooling quickly, analyst warns

“The last time we saw a similar frenzied market cool down very quickly was in April to November 2005. This is a more striking reversal than we experienced that year…Supply is growing fast; demand is weakening; sales volumes are in swift decline; more asking prices are being lowered: listing cancellations and expirations are starting to rise.”

I talked to a real estate agent at an open house yesterday (pricy, nice big house, nice neighborhood. No one else came by in the half hour I was there.)

He talked a lot, and I listened. He seemed honest. Normally realtors are all “Everything is awesome!" but he said his market had turned “180 degrees” in the last month or two (two failed escrows apparently on this house already, due to rates.) He said that it takes sellers “six to nine months” to figure out the market has turned, “but buyers realize it right away.”

He actually said, “Better to sell a year too early than a day too late.” Imagine a real estate agent saying that in 2022! (I tend to do this with stocks.)

I’m reminded a bit of this Century 21 ad from 2006…

I miss the last bubble.

Below is from a mortgage broker’s board in 2007. Same as today - nobody cares about fraud on the way up.

People that say that there was no inflation [pre-2021] - that's totally bogus. There's been huge inflation. - Bassman

I heard someone today (not Jay Powell) say, “Let’s let inflation run hot for a few years, see what happens.” Go say that in a supermarket parking lot.

Of course, there was always inflation. There's no such thing as no inflation. It's just lower inflation than what they want. We always have inflation, inflation is not transitory, it always goes up. It's just the rate of change that we're debating here. - Boockvar

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From @GrantsPub

On Tuesday, Moody’s Investors Service sliced its outlook for SoftBank’s credit to “negative” from “stable” thanks to declining net asset value, in tandem with rising leverage…Not that that feedback was particularly appreciated.  By way of response, SoftBank reiterated a longstanding request for Moody’s to withdraw its rating, as the rating "is based on their subjective assumptions and hypotheses with no reasonable basis for support.” 

Imagine thinking the ratings agencies are too strict.

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Canada 5-year yield

SPX is at 4121. These are year-end targets. Up 14% (4700) qualifies you as one of the “more bearish strategists.”

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The bloody uproar of the War is over: let's enjoy the carnival of the inflation. It’s loads of fun and paper: printed paper, flimsy stuff - do they still call it money? For five billions of it you can get one dollar., What a joke! The Yankees are coming—as peaceful tourists, this time. They purchase a Rembrandt for a sandwich and our souls for a glass of whisky. Messrs. Krupp and Stinnes get rid of their debts: we, of our savings. The profiteers dance in the palace hotels. - Klaus Mann