Great selection of stuff this week. What do you think of Tom McClellan's POV that the Fed should follow the 2 year and they are way behind? Did I see him say they should've cut 150bps?!
The criminals at the Federal Reserve never fail to entertain us. We know the economy is rotten to the gums with daddy .gov filling in the holes. Don't be shocked to see rates near zero by end of summer in 2025.
The writing is on the wall: Inflation of 2%, using a highly flawed benchmark, is now the absolute FLOOR going forward. Periods of massive overshoots will never be counteracted by periods where the Fed seeks inflation under 2%. They have learned nothing whatsoever from the past four years. And they are nothing if not political. 25 bp was the central expectation until Sen. Warren called for 75 bp a few days ago and the “compromise” was Greg Ip of the WSJ browbeating the Fed (in an editorial masquerading as a “news” article) to cut 50 bp early this week. I guess there’s a need to make Americans feel better off over the next seven weeks in order to “save our democracy” etc.
I spent 20+ yrs working in bio/Pharma clinical development world. First on Wall Street raising capital for development stage companies and then as officer of publicly traded biotech. DC’s comments are beyond spot on. It’s needs to be BITFD. Like 80% of the dev stage companies need to go. 80% of the CRO (clinical research organization) industry needs to go. And most importantly, 80% of the cockroach investment banking firms that publish carnival barking research to promote their stock scams need to go. The malinvestment in clinical research is biblical level of waste.
For me it’s an interesting association between AI and power demand. I first got into telecom around 1998. At that time the big move was dark fiber in the ground. Build it, light it up, get T1s and DS3s delivered. You couldn’t get installations done quickly enough and the $$$ were big. When the fat lady sung, those same companies were gone. People just walked away. They just left it running until the electric got shut off. It took a long time for those assets to be reabsorbed and put to use. I think the term they used was slack. Do I see a rhyme forming? I’ll have to wait and see.
Great selection of stuff this week. What do you think of Tom McClellan's POV that the Fed should follow the 2 year and they are way behind? Did I see him say they should've cut 150bps?!
I've quoted McClellan on this, yes. I would 100% support just using the 2-year yield -AND disbanding the FOMC.
Using the 2-year I get, and I recall you quoting it. I don’t know that cutting 150 to get there faster makes sense.
The criminals at the Federal Reserve never fail to entertain us. We know the economy is rotten to the gums with daddy .gov filling in the holes. Don't be shocked to see rates near zero by end of summer in 2025.
The writing is on the wall: Inflation of 2%, using a highly flawed benchmark, is now the absolute FLOOR going forward. Periods of massive overshoots will never be counteracted by periods where the Fed seeks inflation under 2%. They have learned nothing whatsoever from the past four years. And they are nothing if not political. 25 bp was the central expectation until Sen. Warren called for 75 bp a few days ago and the “compromise” was Greg Ip of the WSJ browbeating the Fed (in an editorial masquerading as a “news” article) to cut 50 bp early this week. I guess there’s a need to make Americans feel better off over the next seven weeks in order to “save our democracy” etc.
Can I quote you on this?
Sure, that’s fine with me.
Preach!
I spent 20+ yrs working in bio/Pharma clinical development world. First on Wall Street raising capital for development stage companies and then as officer of publicly traded biotech. DC’s comments are beyond spot on. It’s needs to be BITFD. Like 80% of the dev stage companies need to go. 80% of the CRO (clinical research organization) industry needs to go. And most importantly, 80% of the cockroach investment banking firms that publish carnival barking research to promote their stock scams need to go. The malinvestment in clinical research is biblical level of waste.
When do we reach the tipping point?
For me it’s an interesting association between AI and power demand. I first got into telecom around 1998. At that time the big move was dark fiber in the ground. Build it, light it up, get T1s and DS3s delivered. You couldn’t get installations done quickly enough and the $$$ were big. When the fat lady sung, those same companies were gone. People just walked away. They just left it running until the electric got shut off. It took a long time for those assets to be reabsorbed and put to use. I think the term they used was slack. Do I see a rhyme forming? I’ll have to wait and see.
I was adjacent to that bubble, late 90's. I hear ya.
Prof Dave: I think Rudy is an AI program! No one guy could crank out this much good stuff!