As always thank you for the curating Rudy. The Nakul Sarda post earned him an instant follow; separating signal from the noise. As well as the Hormuz tracker. I hope you bring back your premium service where you block people ;) Thanks as always.
This war on Iran, together with reading history largely written before the 1950s, has led me to the very isolating opinion that the West has not been "the good guys" for at least 100-years.
There’s a strange symmetry running through all of this. On one side, you have real scarcity, energy, fuel, physical constraints tightening in ways that can’t be argued away. On the other, you have capital being deployed at scale into something that promises abundance, compute, AI, a future that’s always just a little ahead of the present .
What sits in between is where things tend to break. When companies start liquidating parts of themselves to fund that future, when labor becomes a line item to be converted into infrastructure, you’re no longer in a clean growth cycle. You’re in a capital reallocation phase, and those are rarely smooth.
The part worth watching isn’t the headlines or even the layoffs themselves. It’s whether the returns on that massive spend actually materialize before the cost of capital catches up. Because when the timeline of innovation moves slower than the timeline of financing, the market has a way of forcing the reconciliation.
If the Iranian navy has been totally obliterated and their air force disabled, then who exactly is keeping this strait closed and what is the point in prolonging this war ?
"So, if that blows up, that’s a problem." Remember, don't cross the streams. Why? It would be bad. What's all this good, bad stuff? Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light. I guess that's bad...
Moody’s lowered the debt rating of FS KKR Capital Corp one notch to BA1 from BAA3, pushing it into junk territory. Where was it in the last changes? Sorry for AI, but it's faster... It was near-investment grade 8 months ago. fell through Baa# to Ba3, Ba2 to Ba1 in that time. Nothing to see here, folks.
August 11, 2025: Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB- rating but revised the outlook back to Negative from Stable due to rising "payment-in-kind" (PIK) income and potential loss risks.
March 23, 2026: Moody's Ratings downgraded the fund's senior unsecured rating to Ba1 (junk status) from Baa3, citing deteriorating asset quality and high leverage.
The Oracle portion is really disturbing. 30,000 innocent employees lose their jobs without warning to subsidize a money losing gorge on AI? And Larry’s son is off playing media mogul with the money already redistributed? The whole thing just stinks. If AI, PE and private credit all tank at the same time, this could be calamitous. 😱
I just wonder if Jerome Powell will ever realize what a, umm, what’s another word for douchebag, bad actor he is. I’d love to see his reaction if and when it hits him.
As always thank you for the curating Rudy. The Nakul Sarda post earned him an instant follow; separating signal from the noise. As well as the Hormuz tracker. I hope you bring back your premium service where you block people ;) Thanks as always.
This war on Iran, together with reading history largely written before the 1950s, has led me to the very isolating opinion that the West has not been "the good guys" for at least 100-years.
Thank you for the link to Fabio's new piece, his Covid paper was great!
There’s a strange symmetry running through all of this. On one side, you have real scarcity, energy, fuel, physical constraints tightening in ways that can’t be argued away. On the other, you have capital being deployed at scale into something that promises abundance, compute, AI, a future that’s always just a little ahead of the present .
What sits in between is where things tend to break. When companies start liquidating parts of themselves to fund that future, when labor becomes a line item to be converted into infrastructure, you’re no longer in a clean growth cycle. You’re in a capital reallocation phase, and those are rarely smooth.
The part worth watching isn’t the headlines or even the layoffs themselves. It’s whether the returns on that massive spend actually materialize before the cost of capital catches up. Because when the timeline of innovation moves slower than the timeline of financing, the market has a way of forcing the reconciliation.
“I always wonder who the counterparty is on these…” you and me, Rudy. You and me…
WTF? Pay the $2 million vig and reflag the vessel. What is it, a buck or two a barrel?
If the Iranian navy has been totally obliterated and their air force disabled, then who exactly is keeping this strait closed and what is the point in prolonging this war ?
"So, if that blows up, that’s a problem." Remember, don't cross the streams. Why? It would be bad. What's all this good, bad stuff? Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light. I guess that's bad...
Moody’s lowered the debt rating of FS KKR Capital Corp one notch to BA1 from BAA3, pushing it into junk territory. Where was it in the last changes? Sorry for AI, but it's faster... It was near-investment grade 8 months ago. fell through Baa# to Ba3, Ba2 to Ba1 in that time. Nothing to see here, folks.
August 11, 2025: Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB- rating but revised the outlook back to Negative from Stable due to rising "payment-in-kind" (PIK) income and potential loss risks.
March 23, 2026: Moody's Ratings downgraded the fund's senior unsecured rating to Ba1 (junk status) from Baa3, citing deteriorating asset quality and high leverage.
The Oracle portion is really disturbing. 30,000 innocent employees lose their jobs without warning to subsidize a money losing gorge on AI? And Larry’s son is off playing media mogul with the money already redistributed? The whole thing just stinks. If AI, PE and private credit all tank at the same time, this could be calamitous. 😱
Another good one Rudy. Who needs the WSJ? I get the real financial news from Rudy!
I just wonder if Jerome Powell will ever realize what a, umm, what’s another word for douchebag, bad actor he is. I’d love to see his reaction if and when it hits him.
Delta Bravo
When you start linking this much CNBC, it means your TDS is terminal. My condolences to your wife’s boyfriend.
Big if true!
That surfer getting arrested really pissed me off. Sort of stuff happened down here too.
Somebody ask Powell what "do something" he recommends. Looks to me like it's too late