I see Citibank, always a bastion of risk management, managed to avoid the single digit percentage in deposits below $250k. At 15%. Salomon Brothers expertise saved them again.
It’s not hard to find banks that would be badly undercapitalized or insolvent if the “held to maturity” securities on their balance sheets are marked to market. If funded by demand deposits, such institutions are sitting ducks for bank runs, perhaps some instigated by short sellers. The remarkable thing is how boring this is. Nothing exotic about it and the problem is obvious from looking at 10-Ks, including Silicon Valley Bank’s 10-K. I’m not a bank analyst and even I can see this.
an algorithm to mine through available data and identify these cracks to then exploit them is already in play is my guess, those that will be bailed out are also playing the attack on the bank? why not?
Well I told you we no longer have a capitalist system. The banks bailed out in 2008 were a prime example. And here we go again no matter what they call it. No one has even mentioned derivatives yet or how bad that situation is. The Federal Reserve is locked and loaded, ready for optimal damage. BYW what happened to your twitter account? So much for free speech 😹. I was going to buy an additional 100 oz of gold 2 weeks back but procrastinated. Damn, I picked the worst time to piss fart around. Note to self:
don’t get lazy when financial system is falling apart! Hope to see you back on Twitterverse soon.
Ackman this morning posted that he thinks people with over $250K in SVB weren’t woke to the fact that their deposits were uninsured. 🙄
“ By allowing @SVB_Financial to fail without protecting all depositors, the world has woken up to what an uninsured deposit is — an unsecured illiquid claim on a failed bank.”
I just can’t believe what I’m reading. Obviously large depositors have to do risk assessments. Or split up deposits in many banks. Or buy t bills. Or do we not believe in capitalism anymore.
From Ackman mega tweet:
“For those who make the case that depositors be damned as it would create moral hazard to save them, consider the feasibility of a world where each depositor must do their own credit assessment of the bank they choose to bank with.“
Ackman deserves all the criticism he’s getting. The whole situation is infuriating and I bet the sun doesn’t set on sand hill road before some bailout announcement. I am sick of these fragile crony capitalists and how they’re screwing up the system for the rest of us: https://rationalwalk.substack.com/p/fragile-capitalists
Mar 11, 2023·edited Mar 11, 2023Liked by Rudy Havenstein
I'm so glad you were banned on Twitter.
It ended up getting me off my lazy ass and subscribing to your newsletter. Twitter can not do justice to the type of analysis and overview you do so well.
Put up a link on your newsletter for Lightning donations on the Bitcoin network, and get a wallet, even if a warm wallet like MUUN, or better yet a Ledger or Trezor hardware wallet.
Whatever you do, don’t look at Amalgamated Banks #s... 😬. All those vaporized union dues will surely bury many pols and ngos with their hands in the pot. NYPOST is about 3 years late to the party.
Also I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that the CBDC pilot program just ended, then poof goes the tech-centric SVB. Look for the CBDC savior to be used to cover payroll services. Followed by the enlightened tech gurus to sell the savior CBDC to the masses. #controlleddemolition
Missing you on the Twit...
Was he deplatformed pre-Elon or post-Elon?
Both. Not sure why this time.
Probably DMCA nonsense
Great stuff
This time is different. Lol
Keep up the great work. Things are about to get a lot worse.
Rudy, You need to get on NOSTR! Decentralized Twitter with no censorship.
I'm liking the long-form but thank you. Never say never.
I see Citibank, always a bastion of risk management, managed to avoid the single digit percentage in deposits below $250k. At 15%. Salomon Brothers expertise saved them again.
Citibank failed years ago. We just never accepted that.
It’s not hard to find banks that would be badly undercapitalized or insolvent if the “held to maturity” securities on their balance sheets are marked to market. If funded by demand deposits, such institutions are sitting ducks for bank runs, perhaps some instigated by short sellers. The remarkable thing is how boring this is. Nothing exotic about it and the problem is obvious from looking at 10-Ks, including Silicon Valley Bank’s 10-K. I’m not a bank analyst and even I can see this.
Same. And i bet shorts are scanning balance sheets this weekend. We had a ban on financial shorts in 2008 - the stocks plunged anyway.
an algorithm to mine through available data and identify these cracks to then exploit them is already in play is my guess, those that will be bailed out are also playing the attack on the bank? why not?
"wilted under the weight of the dramatic IR whipsaw." all hail jim grant, craftsman of apocalypse discounted now.
hope you're back to twitter soon. pitty to be deprived of your color commentary, just as things hot up.
I would further say that being deplatformed from Big Tech is a good mechanism to filter out the noise.
He is literally one website over.
Most people are too lazy to do a basic search for a new website.
People who are deplatformed from Big Tech generally keep less than 5% of their followers.
I say that there is no point keeping the 95% in the first place. They are sheep.
I read somewhere that one email is worth 100 Twitter followers
Amazing post.
Well I told you we no longer have a capitalist system. The banks bailed out in 2008 were a prime example. And here we go again no matter what they call it. No one has even mentioned derivatives yet or how bad that situation is. The Federal Reserve is locked and loaded, ready for optimal damage. BYW what happened to your twitter account? So much for free speech 😹. I was going to buy an additional 100 oz of gold 2 weeks back but procrastinated. Damn, I picked the worst time to piss fart around. Note to self:
don’t get lazy when financial system is falling apart! Hope to see you back on Twitterverse soon.
Such BS you’re suspended again Rudy
Twitter's loss.
At least Pfizer will be top radio spender on ad placements for their "free shots" ..again. Good job congress!
Ackman this morning posted that he thinks people with over $250K in SVB weren’t woke to the fact that their deposits were uninsured. 🙄
“ By allowing @SVB_Financial to fail without protecting all depositors, the world has woken up to what an uninsured deposit is — an unsecured illiquid claim on a failed bank.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1634564398919368704
This is a ridiculous claim by Ackman. Absurd.
I just can’t believe what I’m reading. Obviously large depositors have to do risk assessments. Or split up deposits in many banks. Or buy t bills. Or do we not believe in capitalism anymore.
From Ackman mega tweet:
“For those who make the case that depositors be damned as it would create moral hazard to save them, consider the feasibility of a world where each depositor must do their own credit assessment of the bank they choose to bank with.“
Ackman is everything wrong with the current system.
Ackman deserves all the criticism he’s getting. The whole situation is infuriating and I bet the sun doesn’t set on sand hill road before some bailout announcement. I am sick of these fragile crony capitalists and how they’re screwing up the system for the rest of us: https://rationalwalk.substack.com/p/fragile-capitalists
Awesome. I'll link to your piece in my next rant.
Crony capitalism likely to continue. Bank regulators completely missing here.
They're too busy bashing bitcoin and virtue-signaling to regulate.
As usual
Good morning Rudy. This might amuse you.
https://web.archive.org/web/20081205030631/http://www.svb.com:80/media/economicoutlook.asp?d=120208
Oh man
I'm so glad you were banned on Twitter.
It ended up getting me off my lazy ass and subscribing to your newsletter. Twitter can not do justice to the type of analysis and overview you do so well.
Put up a link on your newsletter for Lightning donations on the Bitcoin network, and get a wallet, even if a warm wallet like MUUN, or better yet a Ledger or Trezor hardware wallet.
Miss your Tweet amigo
Whatever you do, don’t look at Amalgamated Banks #s... 😬. All those vaporized union dues will surely bury many pols and ngos with their hands in the pot. NYPOST is about 3 years late to the party.
Also I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that the CBDC pilot program just ended, then poof goes the tech-centric SVB. Look for the CBDC savior to be used to cover payroll services. Followed by the enlightened tech gurus to sell the savior CBDC to the masses. #controlleddemolition
SVBD = Deka Fund/ The longview collective investment fund, Deka investment GmbH, Deka International SA Luxembourg