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andy's avatar

Dylan’s mumbles.

Not a few artists speak, have spoken, of “the muse.”

Of being akin to channels that art passes through.

Of not knowing the source of what they create, or seem, appear, to create.

Some prefer to take more credit, as creators, others, more honestly I think, less. Dylan appears to do some of both.

Beliefs are rampant … attempts at explanations.

But even if beliefs lead to placebo/nocebo, it doesn’t prove the beliefs true.

Maybe the most fundamental attribution error of all is the fundamental compulsion to storyboard an attribution-explanation.

Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur … “The world wants to be deceived, so let it be deceived.”

Let it? Try stopping it.

CARLA KUHN's avatar

If we can barely get our heads around AI, LLMs, quantum computing, and transhumanism, we're sunk for sure trying to imagine the power behind a trillion dollars. That space biz was largely funded by us taxpayers into grants by our government made to a good buddy of theirs, while NASA shriveled into dust due to their ideological shortcomings---or, have I got that all backwards?

DEBT SERIOUS's avatar

🙏🙏

RS Carvey's avatar

"It doesn't matter what you pay!"

Strong echoes of what Joe Cassano and his AIG team did with mortgage-backed securities in the mid-2000s.

I worked for another large property and casualty insurer at the time, and I vividly remember when in 2005 or 2006 the Chief Investments Officer said at an internal quarterly results meeting, "Our core underwriting results are almost irrelevant because we've cracked the code with our investments portfolio, and it's doing so well." That struck me as a) pretty self-serving, and b) a weird thing to say with Enron not far in the rearview mirror at that point.

You know how the rest goes. I worked in operations strategy, and a couple of years later there were about two weeks where commercial paper was seizing and -- despite having roughly $90M / day in revenue -- we didn't have enough cash on hand to meet our obligations because we were so locked into this illiquid garbage. We had to beg banks on a daily basis to lend us enough for 24 hours to keep the doors open, which they did, solely on the strength of our brand.

Melody Wright's avatar

Excellent post and thank you as always.

Mitch's avatar

No way inflation is 8% currently. Housing would have to be about 40% or so of the sample, and housing definitely hasn't doubled in the last 9 years.

Mitch's avatar

not around here anyway.

I.M. Gei's avatar

Im wrong with nuance

It’s +65-70% since 2016 in my zip code which is an absolutely massive variety of home types

For my immediate vicinity it looks like 2-2.5x. 1 mile to the west it’s 3x

Rudy Havenstein's avatar

I meant Mitch not you. I would say near me as well prices have close to doubled in less than 9 years.

I.M. Gei's avatar

Where people actually live and want to live in my zip code it’s been comparably parabolic for sure. But it also includes the downtown core of office buildings etc

I imagine if you got even granular and looked at the truly desirable spots it’s more like 3.5-4x. Those are mostly pocket sales though with no conditions

I.M. Gei's avatar

I’ll raise my hand to say it nearly has where I live

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Horse Badorties's avatar

The Penguin Guides cover is a parody. Look up "Scarfolk", it's worth an afternoon.

Rudy Havenstein's avatar

I know and have :)