There is an answer: end the Federal Reserve, fire everyone at the Fed and everyone at treasury, seize all the assets of the senior managers and the thirty systemically important banks, and distribute those assets evenly to all their victims except the lawyers. For the lawyers we have the immortal words of Dick the Butcher in the Shakespeare play. You can look it up.
Now, I am one of those hyper-educated guys. My parents were professors and I won scholarships to get me an Ivy league degree in Harlem. They done taught me maths and stats for my triple concentration of astrophysics, economics, and history. In grad school they did me even betterer and larnt me some operations research and linear algebra and such. So I am at home with the me that is on this adventure.
I am not at all intimidated by the 25 standard deviation beyond the mean event coming up once every 1 x 10e135 years. It's a lotta zeroes is all. Ya just say "that don' ever happen" and move on.
But when you experience "that" happening "several days in a row" you either look around for the angels of God or you throw your model out and start fresh. Because if the model doesn't fit actual experience it isn't worth having.
Yeah we used to say "not worth the paper it's printed on" but who even bothers with printers any more?
“I’m not saying I wouldn’t go to a medical doctor for a broken arm, but if he suggests I invade Iraq in response I may ask for a second opinion.” Brilliant
Sep 29, 2023·edited Sep 29, 2023Liked by Rudy Havenstein
Hamish Douglas could do no wrong years ago, his Magellan Funds were talk of the town - Sydney. Of late however, (last couple of years), he's no longer CIO or involved at all. Full discl: I bought in when they dropped a motza a few years ago, and alas, kept dropping.
None of these models include excess liquidity created by monetary and fiscal policies which is why they blow up, without finite limits (gold standard) anything is possible and everything is likely. There isn't a model that can predict an outcome with infinite variables, economists and climate warriors are from the same modelers tribe.
Do you think that the headlines will ever change and report the truth? I.e. JP Morgan’s stockholders, employees, customers and vendors agreed to pay the US Virgin Islands $70M in Epstein settlement for which management takes zero responsibility. Or insert any other in the long list of settlements by businesses and governments.
There is an answer: end the Federal Reserve, fire everyone at the Fed and everyone at treasury, seize all the assets of the senior managers and the thirty systemically important banks, and distribute those assets evenly to all their victims except the lawyers. For the lawyers we have the immortal words of Dick the Butcher in the Shakespeare play. You can look it up.
Now, I am one of those hyper-educated guys. My parents were professors and I won scholarships to get me an Ivy league degree in Harlem. They done taught me maths and stats for my triple concentration of astrophysics, economics, and history. In grad school they did me even betterer and larnt me some operations research and linear algebra and such. So I am at home with the me that is on this adventure.
I am not at all intimidated by the 25 standard deviation beyond the mean event coming up once every 1 x 10e135 years. It's a lotta zeroes is all. Ya just say "that don' ever happen" and move on.
But when you experience "that" happening "several days in a row" you either look around for the angels of God or you throw your model out and start fresh. Because if the model doesn't fit actual experience it isn't worth having.
Yeah we used to say "not worth the paper it's printed on" but who even bothers with printers any more?
Hand waving bad investments as "sigma events" blows my mind. Might as well blame your augur.
Good fun, thanks for the chuckle. Now back to crying…
“I’m not saying I wouldn’t go to a medical doctor for a broken arm, but if he suggests I invade Iraq in response I may ask for a second opinion.” Brilliant
Hamish Douglas could do no wrong years ago, his Magellan Funds were talk of the town - Sydney. Of late however, (last couple of years), he's no longer CIO or involved at all. Full discl: I bought in when they dropped a motza a few years ago, and alas, kept dropping.
PS. I've started to read a book called The Great Taking, it's quite sobering. https://thegreattaking.com/
I downloaded that book - haven't looked at it yet.
Particularly enjoyable post!
None of these models include excess liquidity created by monetary and fiscal policies which is why they blow up, without finite limits (gold standard) anything is possible and everything is likely. There isn't a model that can predict an outcome with infinite variables, economists and climate warriors are from the same modelers tribe.
Great stuff, thx _o/
Great stuff as usual Rudy H. I’m still waiting for my copy to arrive but thought this might interest you.
https://thegreattaking.com
H/t >>> https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot
Do you think that the headlines will ever change and report the truth? I.e. JP Morgan’s stockholders, employees, customers and vendors agreed to pay the US Virgin Islands $70M in Epstein settlement for which management takes zero responsibility. Or insert any other in the long list of settlements by businesses and governments.
It's discouraging.