Soon after I returned to Italy in 2011, after growing up and living as an expat for around 30 years around the world, and consequently being a totally maladjusted Italian living in Italy, the center-right government of the time [I didn't particularly like headed by a pedo] got deposed because interest rates on govt. bonds went higher. The nation in its pomp put a "technocrat" at the helm as prime minister, instead of having elections (because stability, no really this was the narrative; the Greek debt crisis was ongoing for context). As a lifelong student of politics, even though I liked the new PM, ex Dean of Bocconi University (Italian equivalent of Wharton, etc), I called this a coup d'etat, because technically speaking that's what it was, but everyone looked at me like I was crazy. At the following elections this PM (Monti) created a party (against the wishes of the establishment) and I even voted for him, because even though I didn't agree with his politics, I thought he was the most competent "leader" on the scene (his party won around 13%), and when I told people, they looked at me like I was crazy. Since then Italy has had PM's from virtually every permissable existing political ideology, from the young woke reformer, an old communist dinosaur and his protège, who the young reformer backstabbed, followed by a grand national coalition pastiche headed by a polite society ex EU commission minister, followed by a lawyer at the helm of an unholy alliance between the "extreme right" and populists, followed by the same lawyer in an unholy alliance between populists and the left, followed by another technocrat ex head of the ECB "to save the republic" [during Covid] followed by the current center-right government (which the foreign press labels hard right, but it's got just as much in common with extremists as a house cat does with a leopard). (Believe you me the narrative was we couldn't have elections during Covid, because emergency)
Anyhow. I wrote all this because none of these governments have been able to resolve the issues facing Italy after 70 odd years of corrupt ideological bad governance. Italian governments used to make everyone else in the West look amazing, but y'all felt left out and decided to join us in a race to the bottom.
For a few years now I like to say Italy works perfectly for how it was designed to function. People look at me as if I was crazy. They say, with all the problems, how can you say that? I tell them, the quality of life and weather is excellent in Italy, the food and wine is amazing, if we lower our expectations, then when things work out we think: bonus. Italy was designed to be what it is today in the post-WW2 era, complicated and dysfunctional, it's not a bug, it's a feature. The country will never change until exogenous shocks force it to and Italians decide to burn the village down.
Italians love to repeat that the Italian constitution is the most beautiful and best constitution ever written. Hardly anyone has read it. I struggle to go beyond article 1 which literally starts out along the lines of: "the Italian republic is founded on work..." which in my humble opinion sounds a bit like slavery.
Call me crazy, but something I tell expats is: the future of the West is Italy. For instance, we already have digital ID, and it's introduction wasn't even noticed or debated. Very soon democracy as we're used to thinking about it will cease to exist and we will be ruled by technocrats out in the open, but technically speaking the narrative will say it's still a democracy. And it's not like they're going to be able to solve the issues [they're also been responsible for creating], but it might just represent the last leg of our epoch, an attempt to forestall the inevitable. Italy got there first, because we're nearly always last.
Well, gotta say that turtle enjoying various appliances and bottles saved the whole shebang from being too depressive in the end. I am still unsure if they put the audio on it - I am for my sanity going to assume they did tinker with it since I don't know if a turtle can make that sound ;-)
For anyone interested: I just finished a 5-parter looking at the parallels of this newest blunder (working alongside a whole series of blunders since 1930...)
Before anyone complains: It's a free series on my Substack for all to enjoy.
Maybe one or two souls on here will find it enlightening - or want to curse at me for it. Took me a good while to condense all that data into something hopefully enlightening peppered with a few personal observations.
Thought it might fit the theme of this post - sans any animal videos, I'm afraid, I'll take a note to add one for my next piece.
The context of the 1950s CIA led coup was a good reminder of just how awful the U.S. govt has been during my entire lifetime.
And, regarding Gundlach’s comment (I think it was his, I’m too lazy to go back and look) about how long ‘this’ will take to play out. My recollection is when I first started having dialogue with Melody about housing I told her I thought it would be late 2028 at the earliest before the bottom, and that 2029 or 2030 wasn’t outside the realm of reasonable probability. I haven’t changed my mind and if anything, I’m leaning more toward the later dates.
Case-Shiller nationally peaked in 2006 and bottomed in 2012. I think the 1990s in CA was similar - six years. Houses near me are still at peak prices, so maybe 2032.
I also think that in real terms the 1989-1996/97 correction took 7 years. Nominal was less than that then.
And before that, depending on how it’s measured the late 70s early 80s correction took at least 4 years and some analysis puts it at 7.
Long way to go.
Quick anecdote. Our oldest son and his (now) ex wife bought a house in Bozeman. 1.1 million in 2022. He had owned a home which he sold and took the 350k in equity and used it for down payment. They put 50k into repairs and upgrades.
After 3 years they got divorced. They put the house on the market for what they had paid and got an offer. But her parents thought they could get more so they rejected the offer. Instead they bought my son out for 50% of the downpayment plus another 50k. So he walked with 225k. He was pissed because the DP was 100% his money. I told him he got a great deal because the property wasn’t worth what they paid.
So his ex wife just completed the refi and the house appraised for 850k. He called me Friday to tell me I was correct. Which was like the first time in a decade. Haha. Long way to go.
It’s actually even better. His ex had to pay the points and all the closings costs. Which under Montana law he should have been responsible for half. But her mother, whose a lawyer, drafted the divorce settlement. And I am also a lawyer and I reviewed it and told him to go ahead and sign it. They didn’t figure it out until it was too late. More karma.
Chasing the market down. I saw that in 2006-, and lately, a couple overpriced but still very expensive houses ended up marked down $1m by the time they sold. One took months to price properly, the other took 3 or 4 years.
Seems pretty clear to me. After a while and a not inconsiderable number of American deaths, Trump declares victory- the biggest victory ever-and demands that he be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize with the threat of invasion if he doesn’t get it.
“If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.” Hilarious - great essay, liked the music inclusion of HEM’s cover of the REM classic “So. Central Rain”. Reading your essay today made me think of another REM classic, “It’s the End of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine)”
Here's a quote from Trump that helps to explain the problems with this administration: "I always hear, 'Oh, you want to hire people that are smarter than you.' It’s a mistake. You want to be smarter than your people."
Couple that with one of Trump's professors at Wharton saying he was the dumbest student he ever had.
As far as Iranian apocalytic world views those views are shared by Israeli leaders and people in the Trump administration like Mike Huckabee and Pete Hegseth.
Thanks for this post! Do you have a source link for:
Prediction for 2028: “The Democrat and Republican parties have created tremendous blockages to third parties having a chance to succeed. But interest in the third party will be high enough to overcome those blockages.”
Might the "gun" have been a Chinese cruise missile under discussion/negotiation well before the byline date?
"LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Iran is close to a deal with China to purchase anti‑ship cruise missiles, according to six people with knowledge of the negotiations, just as the United States deploys a vast naval force near the Iranian coast ahead of possible strikes on the Islamic Republic.
The deal for the Chinese‑made CM‑302 missiles is near completion, though no delivery date has been agreed, the people said. The supersonic missiles have a range of about 290 kilometres and are designed to evade shipborne defences by flying low and fast. Their deployment would significantly enhance Iran’s strike capabilities and pose a threat to U.S. naval forces in the region, two weapons experts said."
Obama forgot about ballistic missiles in the 18-page JCPOA.
Don't disagree, but more and better always make war tougher.
On another point of the post, widespread inflation impacts of war on oil and related products. How do the renewables folk see stop/no oil playing out? You have to refine oil to get the inputs to make the products that are going up in price. And as a result, in the no oil world you still get gasoline. Do we just dump the by-product in the ocean, or just do without all these other things too?
When gold peaked in 2008 the price of an ounce of gold was $950 that same day. Using gold as the comparison that peak price of $147 per barrel would be over $548 in today's money.
PLAN Z
Thank you, a pleasure to read.
re: Kaczinsky
Soon after I returned to Italy in 2011, after growing up and living as an expat for around 30 years around the world, and consequently being a totally maladjusted Italian living in Italy, the center-right government of the time [I didn't particularly like headed by a pedo] got deposed because interest rates on govt. bonds went higher. The nation in its pomp put a "technocrat" at the helm as prime minister, instead of having elections (because stability, no really this was the narrative; the Greek debt crisis was ongoing for context). As a lifelong student of politics, even though I liked the new PM, ex Dean of Bocconi University (Italian equivalent of Wharton, etc), I called this a coup d'etat, because technically speaking that's what it was, but everyone looked at me like I was crazy. At the following elections this PM (Monti) created a party (against the wishes of the establishment) and I even voted for him, because even though I didn't agree with his politics, I thought he was the most competent "leader" on the scene (his party won around 13%), and when I told people, they looked at me like I was crazy. Since then Italy has had PM's from virtually every permissable existing political ideology, from the young woke reformer, an old communist dinosaur and his protège, who the young reformer backstabbed, followed by a grand national coalition pastiche headed by a polite society ex EU commission minister, followed by a lawyer at the helm of an unholy alliance between the "extreme right" and populists, followed by the same lawyer in an unholy alliance between populists and the left, followed by another technocrat ex head of the ECB "to save the republic" [during Covid] followed by the current center-right government (which the foreign press labels hard right, but it's got just as much in common with extremists as a house cat does with a leopard). (Believe you me the narrative was we couldn't have elections during Covid, because emergency)
Anyhow. I wrote all this because none of these governments have been able to resolve the issues facing Italy after 70 odd years of corrupt ideological bad governance. Italian governments used to make everyone else in the West look amazing, but y'all felt left out and decided to join us in a race to the bottom.
For a few years now I like to say Italy works perfectly for how it was designed to function. People look at me as if I was crazy. They say, with all the problems, how can you say that? I tell them, the quality of life and weather is excellent in Italy, the food and wine is amazing, if we lower our expectations, then when things work out we think: bonus. Italy was designed to be what it is today in the post-WW2 era, complicated and dysfunctional, it's not a bug, it's a feature. The country will never change until exogenous shocks force it to and Italians decide to burn the village down.
Italians love to repeat that the Italian constitution is the most beautiful and best constitution ever written. Hardly anyone has read it. I struggle to go beyond article 1 which literally starts out along the lines of: "the Italian republic is founded on work..." which in my humble opinion sounds a bit like slavery.
Call me crazy, but something I tell expats is: the future of the West is Italy. For instance, we already have digital ID, and it's introduction wasn't even noticed or debated. Very soon democracy as we're used to thinking about it will cease to exist and we will be ruled by technocrats out in the open, but technically speaking the narrative will say it's still a democracy. And it's not like they're going to be able to solve the issues [they're also been responsible for creating], but it might just represent the last leg of our epoch, an attempt to forestall the inevitable. Italy got there first, because we're nearly always last.
So Kaczinsky. Feel free to call me crazy.
Well, gotta say that turtle enjoying various appliances and bottles saved the whole shebang from being too depressive in the end. I am still unsure if they put the audio on it - I am for my sanity going to assume they did tinker with it since I don't know if a turtle can make that sound ;-)
For anyone interested: I just finished a 5-parter looking at the parallels of this newest blunder (working alongside a whole series of blunders since 1930...)
Before anyone complains: It's a free series on my Substack for all to enjoy.
Maybe one or two souls on here will find it enlightening - or want to curse at me for it. Took me a good while to condense all that data into something hopefully enlightening peppered with a few personal observations.
Thought it might fit the theme of this post - sans any animal videos, I'm afraid, I'll take a note to add one for my next piece.
https://funstack.substack.com/p/operation-epic-folly-part-v-interesting?r=ugsll
Well caused horror and hilarity both, in between much provoked thought. Thank you. Looking forward to the next..
The context of the 1950s CIA led coup was a good reminder of just how awful the U.S. govt has been during my entire lifetime.
And, regarding Gundlach’s comment (I think it was his, I’m too lazy to go back and look) about how long ‘this’ will take to play out. My recollection is when I first started having dialogue with Melody about housing I told her I thought it would be late 2028 at the earliest before the bottom, and that 2029 or 2030 wasn’t outside the realm of reasonable probability. I haven’t changed my mind and if anything, I’m leaning more toward the later dates.
Case-Shiller nationally peaked in 2006 and bottomed in 2012. I think the 1990s in CA was similar - six years. Houses near me are still at peak prices, so maybe 2032.
Yep. I would go with that.
I also think that in real terms the 1989-1996/97 correction took 7 years. Nominal was less than that then.
And before that, depending on how it’s measured the late 70s early 80s correction took at least 4 years and some analysis puts it at 7.
Long way to go.
Quick anecdote. Our oldest son and his (now) ex wife bought a house in Bozeman. 1.1 million in 2022. He had owned a home which he sold and took the 350k in equity and used it for down payment. They put 50k into repairs and upgrades.
After 3 years they got divorced. They put the house on the market for what they had paid and got an offer. But her parents thought they could get more so they rejected the offer. Instead they bought my son out for 50% of the downpayment plus another 50k. So he walked with 225k. He was pissed because the DP was 100% his money. I told him he got a great deal because the property wasn’t worth what they paid.
So his ex wife just completed the refi and the house appraised for 850k. He called me Friday to tell me I was correct. Which was like the first time in a decade. Haha. Long way to go.
hahahaha That story made my day. Karma is a MFer.
It’s actually even better. His ex had to pay the points and all the closings costs. Which under Montana law he should have been responsible for half. But her mother, whose a lawyer, drafted the divorce settlement. And I am also a lawyer and I reviewed it and told him to go ahead and sign it. They didn’t figure it out until it was too late. More karma.
Chasing the market down. I saw that in 2006-, and lately, a couple overpriced but still very expensive houses ended up marked down $1m by the time they sold. One took months to price properly, the other took 3 or 4 years.
Seems pretty clear to me. After a while and a not inconsiderable number of American deaths, Trump declares victory- the biggest victory ever-and demands that he be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize with the threat of invasion if he doesn’t get it.
“If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.” Hilarious - great essay, liked the music inclusion of HEM’s cover of the REM classic “So. Central Rain”. Reading your essay today made me think of another REM classic, “It’s the End of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine)”
https://youtu.be/Z0GFRcFm-aY?si=HNtL0GN5Zfp73ggN
Thank you. And glad you are here, helping me to keep sane.
Probably one of the best overall summaries I have read. Any predictions for the mid-terms?
I have to think it’ll be good news/bad news. Good news is GOP does badly. Bad news is Democrats do well.
As always the Uni-Party wins and nothing changes for the better for the regular guy.
If voting could change things, they wouldn't let you do it.
This was such an enjoyable read. Thank you.
I got Plan B, Rudy. Bring in Tiger Woods as Secretary of War.
Here's a quote from Trump that helps to explain the problems with this administration: "I always hear, 'Oh, you want to hire people that are smarter than you.' It’s a mistake. You want to be smarter than your people."
Couple that with one of Trump's professors at Wharton saying he was the dumbest student he ever had.
As far as Iranian apocalytic world views those views are shared by Israeli leaders and people in the Trump administration like Mike Huckabee and Pete Hegseth.
Mildly Gonzo vibe, I really liked it.
Thanks for this post! Do you have a source link for:
Prediction for 2028: “The Democrat and Republican parties have created tremendous blockages to third parties having a chance to succeed. But interest in the third party will be high enough to overcome those blockages.”
Yeah, sorry, I made it unclear. That’s Jeff Gundlach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8sPQom4cnc
Might the "gun" have been a Chinese cruise missile under discussion/negotiation well before the byline date?
"LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Iran is close to a deal with China to purchase anti‑ship cruise missiles, according to six people with knowledge of the negotiations, just as the United States deploys a vast naval force near the Iranian coast ahead of possible strikes on the Islamic Republic.
The deal for the Chinese‑made CM‑302 missiles is near completion, though no delivery date has been agreed, the people said. The supersonic missiles have a range of about 290 kilometres and are designed to evade shipborne defences by flying low and fast. Their deployment would significantly enhance Iran’s strike capabilities and pose a threat to U.S. naval forces in the region, two weapons experts said."
Obama forgot about ballistic missiles in the 18-page JCPOA.
Seems like the rockets and drones they have already are sufficiently anti-ship.
Don't disagree, but more and better always make war tougher.
On another point of the post, widespread inflation impacts of war on oil and related products. How do the renewables folk see stop/no oil playing out? You have to refine oil to get the inputs to make the products that are going up in price. And as a result, in the no oil world you still get gasoline. Do we just dump the by-product in the ocean, or just do without all these other things too?
When gold peaked in 2008 the price of an ounce of gold was $950 that same day. Using gold as the comparison that peak price of $147 per barrel would be over $548 in today's money.