I did pretty well in $BAM for a few years but sold soon after the start of the pandemic. Brookfield’s mortgage debt on properties are non-recourse, but I used to worry whether the parent company would backstop the debt for reputational reasons (I guess I have a Berkshire mindset). I suppose we know the answer now - non recourse is non recourse. I put the proceeds from BAM into Berkshire so I’ve done ok.
Great post. I have a client who is also a rental property owner with properties in Oakland. The stories are absolutely insane (felony-worthy threats from tenants, the various hoops, etc.). Also had a long-time tenant live rent-free for 2 years. This owner tries to do everything by the book, but the amount of trouble is just nuts.
Some quotes from Keynes you and your readers might like (maybe as much as I do):
“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”
“If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has.”
“Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.”
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
“The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”
“Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”
“So it is not an accident that the Nazi lads vent a particular fury against (Einstein). He does truly stand for what they most dislike, the opposite of the blond beast intellectualist, individualist, supernationalist, pacifist, inky, plump... How should they know the glory of the free-ranging intellect and soft objective sympathy to whom money and violence, drink and blood and pomp, mean absolutely nothing?”
Great charts. I call the bug jump up in 2017 on the Expect Economy to Improve or Small Biz Optimistic Index Charts the Trump Bump. The big drop in 2022 is the Biden Hangover.
If business conditions are at lows not seen since the GFC but inflation is still roaring are we in stagflation, or is money velocity about to collapse?
The people who visit Jackson's hole Wyoming or Davos seem to be doing well. If the Fed is completely insane they are crazy like a fox. All the people they care about are happy and wealthier. Powell and friends don't care about the rest of us. I expect when they face trial, the people who arrest them won't care about any of them.
I did pretty well in $BAM for a few years but sold soon after the start of the pandemic. Brookfield’s mortgage debt on properties are non-recourse, but I used to worry whether the parent company would backstop the debt for reputational reasons (I guess I have a Berkshire mindset). I suppose we know the answer now - non recourse is non recourse. I put the proceeds from BAM into Berkshire so I’ve done ok.
I just don't like Mark Carney.
Is Head of Transition Investing as bad as I am imagining? Poor kids
Great post. I have a client who is also a rental property owner with properties in Oakland. The stories are absolutely insane (felony-worthy threats from tenants, the various hoops, etc.). Also had a long-time tenant live rent-free for 2 years. This owner tries to do everything by the book, but the amount of trouble is just nuts.
Your commentary today is even better than usual.
Especially helpful in understanding econ trends are the must-year charts you provided.
Thank you
"multi-year”, damn Siri!
Couple years back I watched Miss Americana about Taylor Swift and learned that she’s more than a pretty-faced, successful pop star.
Some quotes from Keynes you and your readers might like (maybe as much as I do):
“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”
“If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has.”
“Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.”
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
“The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”
“Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”
“So it is not an accident that the Nazi lads vent a particular fury against (Einstein). He does truly stand for what they most dislike, the opposite of the blond beast intellectualist, individualist, supernationalist, pacifist, inky, plump... How should they know the glory of the free-ranging intellect and soft objective sympathy to whom money and violence, drink and blood and pomp, mean absolutely nothing?”
Man, those NFIB small business owners are a bunch of nattering nabobs of negativism - sheesh
Nice Spiro Agnew reference!
Love that quote - my understanding is that William F. Buckley actually penned it for Angew - gawd I miss the 70's
Great charts. I call the bug jump up in 2017 on the Expect Economy to Improve or Small Biz Optimistic Index Charts the Trump Bump. The big drop in 2022 is the Biden Hangover.
If business conditions are at lows not seen since the GFC but inflation is still roaring are we in stagflation, or is money velocity about to collapse?
The people who visit Jackson's hole Wyoming or Davos seem to be doing well. If the Fed is completely insane they are crazy like a fox. All the people they care about are happy and wealthier. Powell and friends don't care about the rest of us. I expect when they face trial, the people who arrest them won't care about any of them.
The ". . . position they are currently not able to fill.” This chart is going to do nothing but get far, far worse.