The disclosure form links for L.B. and J.P. work if you remove the `?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email` at the end of the URL (which perhaps Substack automatically appends?)
The places in green on the housing map where median home prices are not more than 4x median income are also the places the elites dis as flyover country. Actually, the rule of thumb in the 1990s when I was a first time homebuyer was 3x income. And I was able to do that doing software contract work in ... the Silicon Valley making good money but nothing outrageous. Today you'd need an inheritance or the lottery to buy that home based on Redfin estimates.
As Grantham says, asset bubbles are terrible for young people and societies, and yet this will be the 3rd one in 20 years, all Fed-induced. It is criminal that they inflated a housing market - that they had already inflated with ZIRP, QE and the entire "reach for yield" mentality - by going from $ZERO to $2.7 trillion in 14 years (and they ADDED MBS this week!). If one more person tells me that "Well, MBS take up to 180 days to settle, so actually..." I'm gonna lose it. Even if these MBS were from months ago - WTF were they doing buying MBS months ago? I think their rate policy has been insane for a decade, I think they're monetizing treasuries - ok, that's a major reason central banks are created in the first place - but MBS??? And in 2020 they were buying INTEL BONDS! "In the next crisis" they're gonna quadruple down on all this shit. And we keep giving these Fed clowns more and more power, and everyone in our feckless Congress is happy to see the can kicked. Aargh.
The next cycle will probably include the Fed buying stocks citing the precedent set by the bank of Japan. It’s like any ponzi. It’s like tolerance to drugs. You need to do more and more of it for the same effect over time.
I keep hoping that I'm wrong about where this is going. We've had some interesting talks over the past few years with family members who've lived through hyperinflation, and rationing. Not pretty times.
From FT, “. . .investors remain broadly underweight assets that benefit the most from inflation: energy, materials, and industrial stocks, lower-quality credits, commodities and commodity-related countries, gold, . . .” Not me - been here long enough to ride the elevator down - intellectually I buy the strategy but in reality I feel I’ve picked the losing team. Will reason and industrious, honest, hard-work ever prevail again? A friend’s 22 year old son makes over $2k in tips a day bringing drinks to beach-goers in the Hamptons - talk about the impact of masks on children? What also the impact on this young man of obscene easy money for easy work?
One would also want to cheer for BlackRock losing 1.7 trillion reichsmarks, but then should realize its client's money, and I wish the latter would be a bit wiser after 2008 fiasko and an observation of past years development. It's a pain to bone marrow seeing the time and efforts simply melted, went wasted (your tweets on Weimar inflation regularly echoing in my mind), and is merely a beginning of a grandiose fanfair to the Grand Finale.
Their ability to obfuscate, blame shift and misdirect the completely justified anger of the peasants is simply breathtaking. For me, this has been the most frustrating aspect of this madness. You almost have to admire how good they are. Imagine if they used a tiny fraction of their talent and wealth to do something other than wallow in vanity and psychopathic excess.
Comedy. True comedy . . . comes from a place of absolute rage. That’s what makes you one of the best writers on Substack. I can no longer stomach anything Twatter, so for these, albeit less-frequent posts, I am truly grateful.
The disclosure form links for L.B. and J.P. work if you remove the `?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email` at the end of the URL (which perhaps Substack automatically appends?)
Hmm, both links work for me. I don't get that appended text. Maybe because I'm on Substack desktop in chrome - are you on the app?
https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Iceman_Cometh/cqPeDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover
The Iceman Cometh, in spades.
The places in green on the housing map where median home prices are not more than 4x median income are also the places the elites dis as flyover country. Actually, the rule of thumb in the 1990s when I was a first time homebuyer was 3x income. And I was able to do that doing software contract work in ... the Silicon Valley making good money but nothing outrageous. Today you'd need an inheritance or the lottery to buy that home based on Redfin estimates.
As Grantham says, asset bubbles are terrible for young people and societies, and yet this will be the 3rd one in 20 years, all Fed-induced. It is criminal that they inflated a housing market - that they had already inflated with ZIRP, QE and the entire "reach for yield" mentality - by going from $ZERO to $2.7 trillion in 14 years (and they ADDED MBS this week!). If one more person tells me that "Well, MBS take up to 180 days to settle, so actually..." I'm gonna lose it. Even if these MBS were from months ago - WTF were they doing buying MBS months ago? I think their rate policy has been insane for a decade, I think they're monetizing treasuries - ok, that's a major reason central banks are created in the first place - but MBS??? And in 2020 they were buying INTEL BONDS! "In the next crisis" they're gonna quadruple down on all this shit. And we keep giving these Fed clowns more and more power, and everyone in our feckless Congress is happy to see the can kicked. Aargh.
The next cycle will probably include the Fed buying stocks citing the precedent set by the bank of Japan. It’s like any ponzi. It’s like tolerance to drugs. You need to do more and more of it for the same effect over time.
And then you crash.
I keep hoping that I'm wrong about where this is going. We've had some interesting talks over the past few years with family members who've lived through hyperinflation, and rationing. Not pretty times.
Hey, even in hyperinflations stocks go up nominally. I haven't shorted since 2009.
As always, timely and accurate
From FT, “. . .investors remain broadly underweight assets that benefit the most from inflation: energy, materials, and industrial stocks, lower-quality credits, commodities and commodity-related countries, gold, . . .” Not me - been here long enough to ride the elevator down - intellectually I buy the strategy but in reality I feel I’ve picked the losing team. Will reason and industrious, honest, hard-work ever prevail again? A friend’s 22 year old son makes over $2k in tips a day bringing drinks to beach-goers in the Hamptons - talk about the impact of masks on children? What also the impact on this young man of obscene easy money for easy work?
The 50% inflation scenario was so good… and so scary. Nuts. Most people around me, no matter how educated, know nothing about all this.
One would also want to cheer for BlackRock losing 1.7 trillion reichsmarks, but then should realize its client's money, and I wish the latter would be a bit wiser after 2008 fiasko and an observation of past years development. It's a pain to bone marrow seeing the time and efforts simply melted, went wasted (your tweets on Weimar inflation regularly echoing in my mind), and is merely a beginning of a grandiose fanfair to the Grand Finale.
Checking the chronicles here and on cesspool.
Cheers, sir!🍻
Their ability to obfuscate, blame shift and misdirect the completely justified anger of the peasants is simply breathtaking. For me, this has been the most frustrating aspect of this madness. You almost have to admire how good they are. Imagine if they used a tiny fraction of their talent and wealth to do something other than wallow in vanity and psychopathic excess.
Comedy. True comedy . . . comes from a place of absolute rage. That’s what makes you one of the best writers on Substack. I can no longer stomach anything Twatter, so for these, albeit less-frequent posts, I am truly grateful.
Good one. Jim Rogers is awesome.