It strikes me that the west thinks that China is 2008 US with a debt deflationary spiral, while missing that China might actually be a lot more like the Gilded Age US - incredible debt, but going through a productivity boom of the likes the world had never seen. China is making things cheaper and better than the west. Not just the cheap crap of the 2000s and 2010s - real high valued goods/ equipment etc.
What is shocking to many this last week is that the one moat the US was perceived to have (Tech) is looking very narrow and very shallow.
It seems pretty inevitable that BRICS take over global leadership - so long as the hot war in the middle doesn't take us all out...
Hey, Rudy, can you explain what is meant this comment in the 401(k) section? “…has now turned into effectively a naked grab by an elite segment of our society that is effectively able to print wealth for themselves and sell it to all the rest of our Americans.”
I’m pretty new to all of this and I’m really lost here
I should have included this passage which came right before those comments: "Again, another academic paper that has come out since you and I first started talking was Marco Sammon’s "Who Clears the Market when Passive Trades?." And it turns out that the provider of liquidity to passive when people try to buy in are corporate insiders. It’s just insider selling. " So he was criticizing corporate insiders using 401(k)'s as exit liquidity.
I’m going to try to dig into Sammon’s study because I’m still a little lost as to the specific machinations but I think I’ve got the overall concept now.
The JP Morgan note sums up the DeepSeek situation nicely imo.
On another note, looking at inventory increases WOW in CA and across the country get ready to see a very interesting Spring.
Thank you as always.
I love LVG's work too.
It strikes me that the west thinks that China is 2008 US with a debt deflationary spiral, while missing that China might actually be a lot more like the Gilded Age US - incredible debt, but going through a productivity boom of the likes the world had never seen. China is making things cheaper and better than the west. Not just the cheap crap of the 2000s and 2010s - real high valued goods/ equipment etc.
What is shocking to many this last week is that the one moat the US was perceived to have (Tech) is looking very narrow and very shallow.
It seems pretty inevitable that BRICS take over global leadership - so long as the hot war in the middle doesn't take us all out...
I love Gave's non-US centric takes, such as this one. Really enjoyed the entire interview. If you listen to Snider, complete opposite view.
Hey, Rudy, can you explain what is meant this comment in the 401(k) section? “…has now turned into effectively a naked grab by an elite segment of our society that is effectively able to print wealth for themselves and sell it to all the rest of our Americans.”
I’m pretty new to all of this and I’m really lost here
I should have included this passage which came right before those comments: "Again, another academic paper that has come out since you and I first started talking was Marco Sammon’s "Who Clears the Market when Passive Trades?." And it turns out that the provider of liquidity to passive when people try to buy in are corporate insiders. It’s just insider selling. " So he was criticizing corporate insiders using 401(k)'s as exit liquidity.
I just updated the post with that passage added. Thanks for pointing out your understandable confusion. My fault.
Thank you so much! This is helpful.
I’m going to try to dig into Sammon’s study because I’m still a little lost as to the specific machinations but I think I’ve got the overall concept now.
Excellent, as per usual.
Rudy, you listen to the same podcasts. You even like Iron Butterfly. Beginning to worry about confirmation bias…