You mean the guy who said in January 2008 that the Fed is not forecasting a recession, but in fact the NBER later said the recession began in Dec 2007?
I'm seeing a number of fintech charts that present data that includes shaded areas for past recessions - KC Fed manufacturing, inverted yield curve, etc. - and the thing that jumps out at me is that all past data points are well into, or even out of the recession at the similar level of today's data point? Does this mean we already had the recession, or is the inevitable recession will be like nothing ever seen before?
I tend to share the charts I see that are the most interesting - bullish or bearish - and yes, I noticed the same thing you did. The people I think are smarter mostly seem to think we are heading to or in recession, but smarts and this market seem to be disconnected. I can't believe that the biggest bubble in history ends with a minor correction, but I am not in charge.
Don’t worry about the declining manufacturing index, we’ll be making 155mm artillery shells soon. Failing that cluster bombs. Either way, all will be ok (snark)
My wife and I are owned by a 5-pound Yorkie. He expects cucumber slices in the evening. Two years ago, they cost $.59 each. They’re now $.69. Inflation is real. I may have to take that Greeter job at Walmart.
One of the points my dad made in conversation about flat tax proposals thirty years ago was they ignored the massive and very popular subsidy for mortgage interest deductibility. The long period of very low interest may have obscured this point recently. But it is a huge difference between renting and making mortgage payments, especially in the early years of a twenty or thirty year mortgage when most of the payment is going to interest.
Another reason for home ownership is the homestead exemption in bankruptcy law. Once you own your home and it isn't collateral for a loan, it, your tools, and one vehicle to get to work are really hard to claw away from you. This is going to be more apparent as tens of millions of Americans face personal bankruptcy.
These are not very humourous points though, so I'll look for silliness next time. 😁🎶
It’s interesting the psychology of home ownership too. Germans for instance are happy to rent; however, the tenancy laws are very strong in favour of the renter. I suspect Americans - owing to what used to be the drive for self-sufficiency and the desire to forge their own path to the “American Dream” are like the Irish (who have a different history - centuries of being denied property ownership under the Brits). Both cultures have strong emotional drives to own their own ‘patch of land’ and the inability to achieve home ownership is fundamental to their well-being/life satisfaction IMO.
Yeah, its roughly 2/3 homeowners, 1/3 renters nationally, but it's definitely getting harder to own. Then again renting is no picnic either. Inflation is a bad thing.
Always a good read!
Whether this happens to be the first you’ve seen it or it’s old news I’d pay some $ for a livestream of your initial reaction.
This was my instant reaction https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1685014540180938756
Rudy apropos of nothing just wanted to make sure you saw this.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/28/ben-bernanke-lead-review-bank-england-economic-forecasting-errors
You mean the guy who said in January 2008 that the Fed is not forecasting a recession, but in fact the NBER later said the recession began in Dec 2007?
Sadly, I did see it.
I'm seeing a number of fintech charts that present data that includes shaded areas for past recessions - KC Fed manufacturing, inverted yield curve, etc. - and the thing that jumps out at me is that all past data points are well into, or even out of the recession at the similar level of today's data point? Does this mean we already had the recession, or is the inevitable recession will be like nothing ever seen before?
I tend to share the charts I see that are the most interesting - bullish or bearish - and yes, I noticed the same thing you did. The people I think are smarter mostly seem to think we are heading to or in recession, but smarts and this market seem to be disconnected. I can't believe that the biggest bubble in history ends with a minor correction, but I am not in charge.
Don’t worry about the declining manufacturing index, we’ll be making 155mm artillery shells soon. Failing that cluster bombs. Either way, all will be ok (snark)
My wife and I are owned by a 5-pound Yorkie. He expects cucumber slices in the evening. Two years ago, they cost $.59 each. They’re now $.69. Inflation is real. I may have to take that Greeter job at Walmart.
One of the points my dad made in conversation about flat tax proposals thirty years ago was they ignored the massive and very popular subsidy for mortgage interest deductibility. The long period of very low interest may have obscured this point recently. But it is a huge difference between renting and making mortgage payments, especially in the early years of a twenty or thirty year mortgage when most of the payment is going to interest.
Another reason for home ownership is the homestead exemption in bankruptcy law. Once you own your home and it isn't collateral for a loan, it, your tools, and one vehicle to get to work are really hard to claw away from you. This is going to be more apparent as tens of millions of Americans face personal bankruptcy.
These are not very humourous points though, so I'll look for silliness next time. 😁🎶
It’s interesting the psychology of home ownership too. Germans for instance are happy to rent; however, the tenancy laws are very strong in favour of the renter. I suspect Americans - owing to what used to be the drive for self-sufficiency and the desire to forge their own path to the “American Dream” are like the Irish (who have a different history - centuries of being denied property ownership under the Brits). Both cultures have strong emotional drives to own their own ‘patch of land’ and the inability to achieve home ownership is fundamental to their well-being/life satisfaction IMO.
Yeah, its roughly 2/3 homeowners, 1/3 renters nationally, but it's definitely getting harder to own. Then again renting is no picnic either. Inflation is a bad thing.
Inflation is terrible. I blame the government.
In high cost states now your deductions are sigificantly limited since Trump's tax bill.
Trump never loved us.