One less visible risk is the damage to CRE multifamily landlords by government's rent stabilization and rent forbearance burdens. For those who have seen this before, the result will be deterioration of the properties when maintenance gets squeezed out when income drops. NYC and some CA cities come to mind, there are probably more. Deterioration in most cities going forward looks baked in
Absolutely. Taxpayers just got stuck with $11 billion of Signature Bank's "toxic waste."
"Left behind is the commercial real estate debt portfolio, weighted heavily toward multifamily buildings bound by a law that restricts landlords’ ability to raise rents. “It’s toxic waste,” said Christopher Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors. “From an investor point of view, these are dead assets.”" https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/signature-bank-deal-sticks-fdic-with-11-billion-dead-assets
"...the very low interest actually exacerbated inequality." Known intuitively by any high school student and incomprehensible to every econ PhD at the Fed and every politician in D.C.
"...income can serve as a reasonable approximation for credit scores.” Unless you're a too TBTF or Central bank.
This "forecast" person you keep referring to should be fired...
I’ll vouch for the EU food inflation - over the last 6 months I’ve had two sons leave the nest however my food bill has remained the same - anyone who’s had to feed boys knows what that means! (And I have two boys left!)
Apr 8, 2023·edited Apr 8, 2023Liked by Rudy Havenstein
Time for another useless factoid: On that appearance on Soul Train, Al Green had a broken wrist (arm?), thus the scarf to hide the cast. He was also high AF on pain meds. Even though I'm a straight white guy, his performance of Here I Am later in the show was one of the sexiest things I've ever seen.
Seeing Ally on this list makes my blood boil. For years I had to listen to the people from BofA that came in and took over my company talking about how mortgages were the stupidest things on the planet and they should have never gotten involved, and we were the idiots (although all they had done at BofA was whip up securitizations like beach-side cocktails and then bragged about it...short a little net income, just do a securitization before month-end...don't question the collateral). And then they went purple. Great marketing campaign without a lick of sense behind it.
On another note, thank you so much for the Porter Collins' links (and sorry for the outburst....haha)
Try rudy@substack.com. i think that'll work. I saw the book and I posted about it on Twitter months ago. Maybe I can dig that up. These fawning books on Fed failures are grotesque.
Everyone should expect the perfidy of the financial system beneficiaries. They run the system for their benefit. So "reform" isn't possible. The system isn't broken from the perspective of the lying thieves who run it. Sure, the can kicking has the can unrecognisable and the road is nearly gone. But Yellen, Powell, and their owner-operators won't ever care. Everything will burn and they'll laugh.
While we all love to kick the members of the Fed around (I’m there with you). They are not alone in creating this insane CF; as where have the collective members of congress been in their involvement in questioning or non-involvement in opposing policies that have lead the nation down this road. I suppose it’s two sides of the same coin. It could be I missed something.
However, the thing that seems obvious to me is that the individual members whose background is primarily academic, exhibit a complete inability to ever admit that they might be or might have been wrong in their policy decisions. The Phds’s intellecutal dishonesty in never being able to admit to error is IMHO, based on their arrogance and living in the bubble-land called D.C. That would be akin to admitting that, essentially your life’s work in so much as it is foundational in your decision making process, was total bullshit. So much of which, is what I refer to as goose stepping to the party line, and cowardice in ever questioning the prevailing economic orthodoxy. I thought that Powell, because he was not part of academia and actually worked in the “real” world of money management, might school these dangerously educated idiots. It appears, that even through my veil of cynicism, I was so wrong. Please tell me where you see a savior just over the horizon.
I've written before, and agree that Congress (and the voters) are ultimately responsible. I focus on the Fed because lots of people shine a spotlight on Congress, but most people have no idea of the horrific effect Fed policies have had on 90% of Americans, at least since Greenspan.
Agreed. I further agree (out of desperation) with what you have said in having some hope in our younger folks (a la 4th turning theory) to take up the torch to show the way out of the darkness. Otherwise it may be for a variety of reason captured in the words of the satanic priest in the series Carnaval (depression ear). He starts his sermon by snapping his fingers ten times, while addressing the congregation and part of the nation, as it was on the radio "The clock is ticking brothers and sisters, counting down to Armageddon......."
One less visible risk is the damage to CRE multifamily landlords by government's rent stabilization and rent forbearance burdens. For those who have seen this before, the result will be deterioration of the properties when maintenance gets squeezed out when income drops. NYC and some CA cities come to mind, there are probably more. Deterioration in most cities going forward looks baked in
Absolutely. Taxpayers just got stuck with $11 billion of Signature Bank's "toxic waste."
"Left behind is the commercial real estate debt portfolio, weighted heavily toward multifamily buildings bound by a law that restricts landlords’ ability to raise rents. “It’s toxic waste,” said Christopher Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors. “From an investor point of view, these are dead assets.”" https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/signature-bank-deal-sticks-fdic-with-11-billion-dead-assets
"...the very low interest actually exacerbated inequality." Known intuitively by any high school student and incomprehensible to every econ PhD at the Fed and every politician in D.C.
"...income can serve as a reasonable approximation for credit scores.” Unless you're a too TBTF or Central bank.
This "forecast" person you keep referring to should be fired...
I’ll vouch for the EU food inflation - over the last 6 months I’ve had two sons leave the nest however my food bill has remained the same - anyone who’s had to feed boys knows what that means! (And I have two boys left!)
Time for another useless factoid: On that appearance on Soul Train, Al Green had a broken wrist (arm?), thus the scarf to hide the cast. He was also high AF on pain meds. Even though I'm a straight white guy, his performance of Here I Am later in the show was one of the sexiest things I've ever seen.
Thanks for the link to Marc Cahodes podcast. It was fantastic.
Seeing Ally on this list makes my blood boil. For years I had to listen to the people from BofA that came in and took over my company talking about how mortgages were the stupidest things on the planet and they should have never gotten involved, and we were the idiots (although all they had done at BofA was whip up securitizations like beach-side cocktails and then bragged about it...short a little net income, just do a securitization before month-end...don't question the collateral). And then they went purple. Great marketing campaign without a lick of sense behind it.
On another note, thank you so much for the Porter Collins' links (and sorry for the outburst....haha)
Try rudy@substack.com. i think that'll work. I saw the book and I posted about it on Twitter months ago. Maybe I can dig that up. These fawning books on Fed failures are grotesque.
How do we message you content? Did you see the book cover for Janet Yellen, Empathy Economics? I threw up in my mouth a little.
Everyone should expect the perfidy of the financial system beneficiaries. They run the system for their benefit. So "reform" isn't possible. The system isn't broken from the perspective of the lying thieves who run it. Sure, the can kicking has the can unrecognisable and the road is nearly gone. But Yellen, Powell, and their owner-operators won't ever care. Everything will burn and they'll laugh.
While we all love to kick the members of the Fed around (I’m there with you). They are not alone in creating this insane CF; as where have the collective members of congress been in their involvement in questioning or non-involvement in opposing policies that have lead the nation down this road. I suppose it’s two sides of the same coin. It could be I missed something.
However, the thing that seems obvious to me is that the individual members whose background is primarily academic, exhibit a complete inability to ever admit that they might be or might have been wrong in their policy decisions. The Phds’s intellecutal dishonesty in never being able to admit to error is IMHO, based on their arrogance and living in the bubble-land called D.C. That would be akin to admitting that, essentially your life’s work in so much as it is foundational in your decision making process, was total bullshit. So much of which, is what I refer to as goose stepping to the party line, and cowardice in ever questioning the prevailing economic orthodoxy. I thought that Powell, because he was not part of academia and actually worked in the “real” world of money management, might school these dangerously educated idiots. It appears, that even through my veil of cynicism, I was so wrong. Please tell me where you see a savior just over the horizon.
I've written before, and agree that Congress (and the voters) are ultimately responsible. I focus on the Fed because lots of people shine a spotlight on Congress, but most people have no idea of the horrific effect Fed policies have had on 90% of Americans, at least since Greenspan.
I see no political saviors.
Agreed. I further agree (out of desperation) with what you have said in having some hope in our younger folks (a la 4th turning theory) to take up the torch to show the way out of the darkness. Otherwise it may be for a variety of reason captured in the words of the satanic priest in the series Carnaval (depression ear). He starts his sermon by snapping his fingers ten times, while addressing the congregation and part of the nation, as it was on the radio "The clock is ticking brothers and sisters, counting down to Armageddon......."