SADLY this is still true just add Yellen and Powell to the names
"The best reporters were people who were NOT reporters, who didn’t blindly accept the official narrative, who drove around developments, talked to investors, renters, homeowners - you know, non-billionaires - and ignored the pronouncements of Greenspan and Bernanke, who were both completely clueless"
Excellent post, and I also love the Big Short. I thought it was going to be the movie I referenced when I talked about my legacy in financial services. Now, I think there is going to be a sequel. Thank you so much for the shoutouts. So grateful.
May 10, 2023·edited May 10, 2023Liked by Rudy Havenstein
The book and film IMHO were both superb as story telling vehicles. Yes, someone who is an expert in finance might find inaccuracies, or did not like certain people being vilified or praised, maybe for good reasons, but, especially for the film version, the larger points were made very effectively. Michael Lewis is a talented story teller, he is not a diagnostician, not conducting an autopsy on the GFC. If he had done that, he would not have reached people in the way or in the numbers he did. To be honest, I am surprised it was OK'd in Hollywood. Not many big money film makers are willing to rock the boat like that. Oliver Stone, is the only one that comes to mind.
Agree, not perfect or comprehensive, but what is? The other big movie out of that period was "Too Big To Fail," and I thought the book portrayed the arsonists as heroes. Gross.
Nice piece. GFC definitely affected my way of looking at a lot of things. As for AirBnB’s, I know how hard it is to run rental properties (I bought a few bank owned properties in the wake of GFC and sold a few years later). Tenants, trash and toilets all the way. AirBnB business is probably much harder and more capital intensive. It can slowly bleed you dry if the occupancy isn’t there. Or you get a black swan event impacting travel and it collapses very quickly.
Eloquently stated Mr. Rudy, I read the same piece the other day on ZeroHedge. I liked what he said but it is a great movie, I haven't read the book (I have read Liar's Poker and it's awesome). He was right in the sense that it made Burry, Eisman and co look like the only 3 geniuses in America. In reality it was anyone with a pulse who understood basic finance principals who shorted or understood it wouldn't end well.
Funny you mentioned Eisman, he started tweeting the other day and even did a twitter spaces.
Here is Peter Schiff's 06' speech explaining exactly what would happen 2 years early LOL, he was also early. People make fun of me for respecting Schiff but idgaf, he's a good guy. He set up a hedge fund to short subprime as well.
"I talked to a real estate agent at an open house yesterday (pricy, nice big house, nice neighborhood. No one else came by in the half hour I was there.)
He talked a lot, and I listened. He seemed honest. Normally realtors are all “Everything is awesome!" but he said his market had turned “180 degrees” in the last month or two (two failed escrows apparently on this house already, due to rates.) He said that it takes sellers “six to nine months” to figure out the market has turned, “but buyers realize it right away.”
He actually said, “Better to sell a year too early than a day too late.” Imagine a real estate agent saying that in 2022!"
Hard to imagine a better real life character than Eisman. Lewis supposedly shadowed SBF - but he seems dull so if a book is coming it may disappoint.
As for being early, only adrenaline junkies get their kicks with close calls IMO. Also too easy to confuse luck with skill - but like you I’m no Master of the Universe (nor a social X-ray!) so what do I know.
SADLY this is still true just add Yellen and Powell to the names
"The best reporters were people who were NOT reporters, who didn’t blindly accept the official narrative, who drove around developments, talked to investors, renters, homeowners - you know, non-billionaires - and ignored the pronouncements of Greenspan and Bernanke, who were both completely clueless"
Excellent post, and I also love the Big Short. I thought it was going to be the movie I referenced when I talked about my legacy in financial services. Now, I think there is going to be a sequel. Thank you so much for the shoutouts. So grateful.
The book and film IMHO were both superb as story telling vehicles. Yes, someone who is an expert in finance might find inaccuracies, or did not like certain people being vilified or praised, maybe for good reasons, but, especially for the film version, the larger points were made very effectively. Michael Lewis is a talented story teller, he is not a diagnostician, not conducting an autopsy on the GFC. If he had done that, he would not have reached people in the way or in the numbers he did. To be honest, I am surprised it was OK'd in Hollywood. Not many big money film makers are willing to rock the boat like that. Oliver Stone, is the only one that comes to mind.
Agree, not perfect or comprehensive, but what is? The other big movie out of that period was "Too Big To Fail," and I thought the book portrayed the arsonists as heroes. Gross.
I did not see that one.
I didn't see it either after reading the book. Sorkin is a billionaire fluffer.
Oh that guy. Taibbi had some choice descriptions of him in his Rolling Stone days.
Nice piece. GFC definitely affected my way of looking at a lot of things. As for AirBnB’s, I know how hard it is to run rental properties (I bought a few bank owned properties in the wake of GFC and sold a few years later). Tenants, trash and toilets all the way. AirBnB business is probably much harder and more capital intensive. It can slowly bleed you dry if the occupancy isn’t there. Or you get a black swan event impacting travel and it collapses very quickly.
Eloquently stated Mr. Rudy, I read the same piece the other day on ZeroHedge. I liked what he said but it is a great movie, I haven't read the book (I have read Liar's Poker and it's awesome). He was right in the sense that it made Burry, Eisman and co look like the only 3 geniuses in America. In reality it was anyone with a pulse who understood basic finance principals who shorted or understood it wouldn't end well.
Funny you mentioned Eisman, he started tweeting the other day and even did a twitter spaces.
Here is Peter Schiff's 06' speech explaining exactly what would happen 2 years early LOL, he was also early. People make fun of me for respecting Schiff but idgaf, he's a good guy. He set up a hedge fund to short subprime as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj8rMwdQf6k&t=3164s
pretty sure I read it on wolfstreet.com - a real estate broker said about getting out: better to be 1 year too early than 1 day too late
I wrote this in June 2022:
"I talked to a real estate agent at an open house yesterday (pricy, nice big house, nice neighborhood. No one else came by in the half hour I was there.)
He talked a lot, and I listened. He seemed honest. Normally realtors are all “Everything is awesome!" but he said his market had turned “180 degrees” in the last month or two (two failed escrows apparently on this house already, due to rates.) He said that it takes sellers “six to nine months” to figure out the market has turned, “but buyers realize it right away.”
He actually said, “Better to sell a year too early than a day too late.” Imagine a real estate agent saying that in 2022!"
https://rudy.substack.com/p/you-cant-taper-a-ponzi
Hard to imagine a better real life character than Eisman. Lewis supposedly shadowed SBF - but he seems dull so if a book is coming it may disappoint.
As for being early, only adrenaline junkies get their kicks with close calls IMO. Also too easy to confuse luck with skill - but like you I’m no Master of the Universe (nor a social X-ray!) so what do I know.
I just figured: if you can't lick 'em, join' em