Fantastic article. I had a conversation with a younger colleague (~35yo) the other day. She announced that she is an "economic liberal" because "capitalism doesn't work". I showed her the Chapwood Index and suggested that San Diego is a very expensive place to live because (according to Chapwood) we have seen approximately 11% YoY inflation for the past 4 years. And then pointed to Italy, Greece, and Spain as being pain points for the EU with high inflation and high unemployment and lack of economic productivity. She dismissively waved her hand and said she'd love to earn less money and have 6 weeks of vacation each year and reiterated "capitalism doesn't work". Later that day she routed a petition through our department to ask the county of San Diego to lower our energy prices. She's a highly educated and hard working person. It's simply a fact that very people understand where all this pain is coming from. #EndTheFed
When it comes to models, whether for inflation, “Covid”, or climate change, they begin with the desired outcomes and then enter in either faked or cherry picked data and voila! Same goes for polls. It’s simply naked class warfare (yes, a deliberate, coordinated conspiracy by the rich and powerful to steal everything while using some of the loot to create a sophisticated propaganda machine and build a repressive apparatus/digital slave system to ensure we can’t ever fight back - not to mention a blatant depopulation campaign) covered over with with the thin veneer of The Science™️.
"If you look at the computer models, which not just the bank of England, but other central banks use, whatever you do to monetary policy, inflation always comes back to 2%. Why does it do that? Because the model says it has to..."
I believe that Paul Krugman and his ilk know that they are lying about inflation and the economy, know that the theories they push hurt millions of people and they don't care. Some, like Powell and Yellen actually get a thrill out of hurting other people. They are paid extremely well to hurt others and they like the work. I am happy to be shown even the least scintilla of evidence that I am mistaken about their character.
A reasonable guide to inflation without the "hedonic" adjustments is at shadowstats.com and simply works the same data with the 1980 algorithm.
I almost moved to Tennessee in 2010. Fairly new homes about 30 miles south of Nashville (near Spring Hill) were available in the mid $100K range. Closer to Nashville, around Franklin, a very affluent area, had new home subdivisions where you could get a very nice custom home for around $350K if I recall correctly. Redfin search just now shows that Franklin TN has gone stratospheric.
At the time, there was no income tax on wages but they had an income tax on investment income. Apparently this was repealed in 2022 and now they have no income tax at all. I wasn’t aware of that.
TN is a beautiful state, especially the eastern mountains near Knoxville, so I can see why people want to live there. But like everything else in real estate post pandemic, people seem to have gone insane recently.
Local incomes can't support these prices, right? I really hope this reverts to non-insanity, but govt, current owners, realtors etc. have massive incentive to keep prices stratospheric.
Franklin was an affluent suburb in 2010 so there’s probably money there but hard to believe that many people can afford the large number of $1m+ listings I see. I never moved there so not sure about current conditions.
The situation you described above is being borne out in Ireland. There is an incredible shortage of housing so lower paid workers like graduate nurses and teachers can't find somewhere to live near the bigger cities. Many end up leaving.
As an aside, remote working and a glut of hotels and office buildings have gutted the city centre which less and less people want to visit. Office vacancy rates are increasing but they kept building them. The government rents hotels for homeless and refugees.
People are sharing bedrooms and sometimes beds with strangers for €500 a month. Landlords are renting 3 bedroom houses for 3x mortgage. They won't ban airbnb because airbnb threatened to pull 1000 jobs. Snafu
Readers’ comments from 2015 are very interesting - people have been slogging it out for a long time now. The health of the national psyche must be under serious pressure. Saw today Biden’s re-election TV ad - ‘our fearless and brave war-time President’ - it’s not just the BLS who makes things up.
Fantastic article. I had a conversation with a younger colleague (~35yo) the other day. She announced that she is an "economic liberal" because "capitalism doesn't work". I showed her the Chapwood Index and suggested that San Diego is a very expensive place to live because (according to Chapwood) we have seen approximately 11% YoY inflation for the past 4 years. And then pointed to Italy, Greece, and Spain as being pain points for the EU with high inflation and high unemployment and lack of economic productivity. She dismissively waved her hand and said she'd love to earn less money and have 6 weeks of vacation each year and reiterated "capitalism doesn't work". Later that day she routed a petition through our department to ask the county of San Diego to lower our energy prices. She's a highly educated and hard working person. It's simply a fact that very people understand where all this pain is coming from. #EndTheFed
When it comes to models, whether for inflation, “Covid”, or climate change, they begin with the desired outcomes and then enter in either faked or cherry picked data and voila! Same goes for polls. It’s simply naked class warfare (yes, a deliberate, coordinated conspiracy by the rich and powerful to steal everything while using some of the loot to create a sophisticated propaganda machine and build a repressive apparatus/digital slave system to ensure we can’t ever fight back - not to mention a blatant depopulation campaign) covered over with with the thin veneer of The Science™️.
"If you look at the computer models, which not just the bank of England, but other central banks use, whatever you do to monetary policy, inflation always comes back to 2%. Why does it do that? Because the model says it has to..."
- Mervyn King
Actually, you can go on Amazon right now and you can find 40" TV for 148$
So I think that for TV set, the comparison do not hold because there is great many TV for 40" at around 150$ on amazon.
That's the BLS' example.
Yes, there example is counter-intuitive and doesn't seems to make any sense. Who can look at this and not laugh.
The Melody Wright vid is such good info. Thanks for sharing it.
I believe that Paul Krugman and his ilk know that they are lying about inflation and the economy, know that the theories they push hurt millions of people and they don't care. Some, like Powell and Yellen actually get a thrill out of hurting other people. They are paid extremely well to hurt others and they like the work. I am happy to be shown even the least scintilla of evidence that I am mistaken about their character.
A reasonable guide to inflation without the "hedonic" adjustments is at shadowstats.com and simply works the same data with the 1980 algorithm.
Toadies and Possum Kingdom are both awesome; Lake Sam Rayburn is a nice camp as well.
I subscribe and/or follow a lot of substacks but I always save your writings for last because they’re too good to end too soon
Thank you. Made my day.
I almost moved to Tennessee in 2010. Fairly new homes about 30 miles south of Nashville (near Spring Hill) were available in the mid $100K range. Closer to Nashville, around Franklin, a very affluent area, had new home subdivisions where you could get a very nice custom home for around $350K if I recall correctly. Redfin search just now shows that Franklin TN has gone stratospheric.
At the time, there was no income tax on wages but they had an income tax on investment income. Apparently this was repealed in 2022 and now they have no income tax at all. I wasn’t aware of that.
TN is a beautiful state, especially the eastern mountains near Knoxville, so I can see why people want to live there. But like everything else in real estate post pandemic, people seem to have gone insane recently.
Local incomes can't support these prices, right? I really hope this reverts to non-insanity, but govt, current owners, realtors etc. have massive incentive to keep prices stratospheric.
Franklin was an affluent suburb in 2010 so there’s probably money there but hard to believe that many people can afford the large number of $1m+ listings I see. I never moved there so not sure about current conditions.
I liked the reddit air bnb anecdotes ... waiting for the wave to hit Oz
Great update. It's all Kabuki theatre to make the producers rich.
The situation you described above is being borne out in Ireland. There is an incredible shortage of housing so lower paid workers like graduate nurses and teachers can't find somewhere to live near the bigger cities. Many end up leaving.
As an aside, remote working and a glut of hotels and office buildings have gutted the city centre which less and less people want to visit. Office vacancy rates are increasing but they kept building them. The government rents hotels for homeless and refugees.
People are sharing bedrooms and sometimes beds with strangers for €500 a month. Landlords are renting 3 bedroom houses for 3x mortgage. They won't ban airbnb because airbnb threatened to pull 1000 jobs. Snafu
Readers’ comments from 2015 are very interesting - people have been slogging it out for a long time now. The health of the national psyche must be under serious pressure. Saw today Biden’s re-election TV ad - ‘our fearless and brave war-time President’ - it’s not just the BLS who makes things up.
Boy you sure pack a lot of material into each of these posts!
I leave a lot out! :)
lol.