With all the leveraged commercial office space, and with all the “work” at home that has continued, how can the commercial REITs be solvent? In other words, is Blackrock mgmt really as smart as they think they are?
Been looking a lot into that. Blackstone is handing the keys back to office buildings, has had to gate redemptions on BREIT, yet just raised $30B to buy more real estate. Avarice over sense maybe.
I'd like to know what happens to all these massive buildings when they become white elephants. They are too expensive to demolish and too expensive to maintain.
The ShadowStats.com site continues to confirm your hypothesis that inflation, calculated the way it was in 1980 without all the lies about what they are "adjusting" and whether seasonal or hedonic are the bigger lies, is much higher than the gooferment claims.
You are also right that things like Yellen cannot perceive that inflation is torture because they are not able to see other people as humans. We are objects to be abused and manipulated.
Happily there is a charity serving lunch to the poor here in Ashland tomorrow. God provides. Amen.
"A pet peeve forever as I’ve followed financial marketeers is the utter lack of concern - almost contempt - by almost everyone involved about the cost of living for 340+- million Americans."
Most of FinTwit comes from Ivory towers or privilege....it's why they can say things like a recession wasn't so bad in the 70's....the same one where my family lost our home, etc.
And, it's why what you are doing is so important. This is about real people suffering daily to feed themselves and their children, people who live in fear about the power getting cut off or the car not starting.....and this is their entire reality - every single day is counting pennies.
The superprime get cheap loans to buy ridiculous homes and boats and stuff and more stuff and regular Americans worry if they will have a place to sleep next year.
Sad to see how far The Economist has fallen (I subscribed from the early 90s until 2016). To characterize an increase in the inflation “target” from 2% to 4% as modest is ridiculous. At the “magic 2%” level (which is 2% higher than the Fed’s stable price mandate), prices double in 35 years. At 4%, prices double in 18 years and quadruple in 35 years. Of course, the actual cost of living will go up by even more due to the ridiculous manipulation of CPI.
At the next FOMC propaganda event (aka “press conference”), perhaps someone should ask if the Fed plans to target a 0% inflation rate for several years to make up for the massive inflation of the past two years. Of course, the question won’t be asked and we already know the answer.
CPI "Adjusted" truck prices are flat from 2001 thru 2022. Here are the USD costs of my medium level Ford F150 pickups that I bought during that time frame: 2003: $27K 2006: $35K 2012: $46K 2022 $56K The same trucks, same options, same color!! No inflation! Right? Bite me Yellen and Powell.
Yeah I pointed out before that, for example, new car prices (due to completely subjective "hedonic-quality adjustments") went up basically 0% from the mid-1990's until 2020. Completely absurd, but that's what went in the CPU.
I've never understood the claim that gold and bitcoin are the best hedges against inflation. Neither of them offer a yield. Real estate and equities do.
at that time we will be wearing helmets with spikes, driving cars with giant sound systems and a guitarist on front, and be the subject of an overlord who controls all our water.
The "inflation is good deflation is bad" crowd are like cult members with dixie cups of antifreeze trying to convince me it's gonna end well. Their hypothetical that the economy will stop and "fiat currency" will no longer circulate as prices fall is built on an assumption of falling demand, which is hilarious in consumer world, which can we point to a time in history besides when they've crashed the economies where this happens in a free market? It's weird how all the bean counters in any factory i ever worked in never 1 time tried to program inflation into their cost basis, they were always trying to force deflation into the product to capture those margins.
Apr 20, 2023·edited Apr 20, 2023Liked by Rudy Havenstein
what do you think of bitcoin? from decentralization (ie, no single point of failure) the software is open source, nodes are distributed all over the planet, miners too (in a classical system, nodes are book keepers, miners are writers), anyway learnmeabitcoin.com may help to understand the technical aspecs which is necessary to understand bitcoin, since all of these financial problems are because humans are in charge of money supply, in bitcoin humans are taken out of the equation entirely, from the system's machinery at least, the price is of course can be manipulated by market makers, etc. but nobody can change the supply or block size (the core software codes embedded in the system). It seemed Satoshi Nakamoto understand the core problem of fiat money better than almost anyone, it comes to no surprise to me that people who don't understand plumbings of financial system (who still think that their money are kept in a jar inside the bank's building, most people do think this way about money) don't understand bitcoin.
My daughter in rural Texas just sent me her tax appraisal for 2023 for her 3/3/2 Ranch style home, $355K up from $295K last year. Shove that 20% increase up your CPI Yellin and Powell
I told someone who shops for others often, and is very savvy on prices, that the official inflation rate was 5% year over year and they just started laughing.
So many great points and quotes. I didn't know Drunkenmiller had dunked on Buffet. And when you see the media suck up to him with the old Uncle Warren schtick., what complete BS. If that prick liked pipelines over railways how many p/l would have been built? Would Obama have taxed/restricted shipping oil by tankcar even?
"That which cannot be measured does not exist" appears to be a guiding principle of modern 'fake' science. Also, "That which receives funding and ensure tenure is clearly provable, indeed already proven" is probably the most important 'scientific' principle.
With all the leveraged commercial office space, and with all the “work” at home that has continued, how can the commercial REITs be solvent? In other words, is Blackrock mgmt really as smart as they think they are?
Been looking a lot into that. Blackstone is handing the keys back to office buildings, has had to gate redemptions on BREIT, yet just raised $30B to buy more real estate. Avarice over sense maybe.
I'd like to know what happens to all these massive buildings when they become white elephants. They are too expensive to demolish and too expensive to maintain.
Ha! I just watched a youtube video about the ghost cities and some of the demolition.
The ShadowStats.com site continues to confirm your hypothesis that inflation, calculated the way it was in 1980 without all the lies about what they are "adjusting" and whether seasonal or hedonic are the bigger lies, is much higher than the gooferment claims.
You are also right that things like Yellen cannot perceive that inflation is torture because they are not able to see other people as humans. We are objects to be abused and manipulated.
Happily there is a charity serving lunch to the poor here in Ashland tomorrow. God provides. Amen.
"A pet peeve forever as I’ve followed financial marketeers is the utter lack of concern - almost contempt - by almost everyone involved about the cost of living for 340+- million Americans."
Most of FinTwit comes from Ivory towers or privilege....it's why they can say things like a recession wasn't so bad in the 70's....the same one where my family lost our home, etc.
And, it's why what you are doing is so important. This is about real people suffering daily to feed themselves and their children, people who live in fear about the power getting cut off or the car not starting.....and this is their entire reality - every single day is counting pennies.
Meanwhile: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-16/first-republic-s-loans-to-rich-clients-drag-earnings-hinder-potential-sale?cmpid=BBD041723_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=230417&utm_campaign=markets
The superprime get cheap loans to buy ridiculous homes and boats and stuff and more stuff and regular Americans worry if they will have a place to sleep next year.
Great post.
Thank you
The credit score industry is a scam that benefits the rich and hurts the poor like everything else in this country.
Check out the "Mortgage Originations by Credit Score" graph in this NY Fed paper. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2022Q4.pdf?sc_lang=en
The Fed itself says "income can serve as a reasonable approximation for credit scores.”
The Fed’s MBS buying overwhelmingly benefited the wealthiest Americans.
Thanks.
Just something I came across the other day. Cheers.
Sad to see how far The Economist has fallen (I subscribed from the early 90s until 2016). To characterize an increase in the inflation “target” from 2% to 4% as modest is ridiculous. At the “magic 2%” level (which is 2% higher than the Fed’s stable price mandate), prices double in 35 years. At 4%, prices double in 18 years and quadruple in 35 years. Of course, the actual cost of living will go up by even more due to the ridiculous manipulation of CPI.
At the next FOMC propaganda event (aka “press conference”), perhaps someone should ask if the Fed plans to target a 0% inflation rate for several years to make up for the massive inflation of the past two years. Of course, the question won’t be asked and we already know the answer.
Our servile financial media is a big problem
The Economist is just another corrupted woke institution.
They became extremely political in starting 2016.
CPI "Adjusted" truck prices are flat from 2001 thru 2022. Here are the USD costs of my medium level Ford F150 pickups that I bought during that time frame: 2003: $27K 2006: $35K 2012: $46K 2022 $56K The same trucks, same options, same color!! No inflation! Right? Bite me Yellen and Powell.
Yeah I pointed out before that, for example, new car prices (due to completely subjective "hedonic-quality adjustments") went up basically 0% from the mid-1990's until 2020. Completely absurd, but that's what went in the CPU.
I've never understood the claim that gold and bitcoin are the best hedges against inflation. Neither of them offer a yield. Real estate and equities do.
I agree. Gold is more like fire insurance, or having a handgun and hoping you never need it.
at that time we will be wearing helmets with spikes, driving cars with giant sound systems and a guitarist on front, and be the subject of an overlord who controls all our water.
I just want to be a lieutenant for a neighborhood warlord, stay out of trouble
The "inflation is good deflation is bad" crowd are like cult members with dixie cups of antifreeze trying to convince me it's gonna end well. Their hypothetical that the economy will stop and "fiat currency" will no longer circulate as prices fall is built on an assumption of falling demand, which is hilarious in consumer world, which can we point to a time in history besides when they've crashed the economies where this happens in a free market? It's weird how all the bean counters in any factory i ever worked in never 1 time tried to program inflation into their cost basis, they were always trying to force deflation into the product to capture those margins.
Thanks for turning me onto Chris Arnade...great writing.
He seems sincere
Very much so.
what do you think of bitcoin? from decentralization (ie, no single point of failure) the software is open source, nodes are distributed all over the planet, miners too (in a classical system, nodes are book keepers, miners are writers), anyway learnmeabitcoin.com may help to understand the technical aspecs which is necessary to understand bitcoin, since all of these financial problems are because humans are in charge of money supply, in bitcoin humans are taken out of the equation entirely, from the system's machinery at least, the price is of course can be manipulated by market makers, etc. but nobody can change the supply or block size (the core software codes embedded in the system). It seemed Satoshi Nakamoto understand the core problem of fiat money better than almost anyone, it comes to no surprise to me that people who don't understand plumbings of financial system (who still think that their money are kept in a jar inside the bank's building, most people do think this way about money) don't understand bitcoin.
My daughter in rural Texas just sent me her tax appraisal for 2023 for her 3/3/2 Ranch style home, $355K up from $295K last year. Shove that 20% increase up your CPI Yellin and Powell
I told someone who shops for others often, and is very savvy on prices, that the official inflation rate was 5% year over year and they just started laughing.
So many great points and quotes. I didn't know Drunkenmiller had dunked on Buffet. And when you see the media suck up to him with the old Uncle Warren schtick., what complete BS. If that prick liked pipelines over railways how many p/l would have been built? Would Obama have taxed/restricted shipping oil by tankcar even?
That was me dunking on Buffett, from a now banned tweet.
Sure, there was USD inflation before 2021. But was there USD inflation before 1913? No sir.
Reading your articles always makes me think I don’t own enough gold 😉
"That which cannot be measured does not exist" appears to be a guiding principle of modern 'fake' science. Also, "That which receives funding and ensure tenure is clearly provable, indeed already proven" is probably the most important 'scientific' principle.