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Joshua Hughes's avatar

I picked up on Paulo's "real rate is wrong" the other day. I wonder... if we tweaked the real rate with the 80s CPI calc would gold track it more closely? Lots of things changing all at the same time.

And there's a good screwworm metaphor here somewhere.

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Abe's avatar

One stat i have yet to see in your letters is the TIMED BANKRUPTCY STRATEGY in which you estimate life expectancy and plan to max out on debt you can pile on from mortgages and credit card lines where the TTSHF (TIME TO SHYT HITTING FAN)=>EXPECTED LIFE SPAN where one may use a conservative, realistic or plain crazy long estimate depending on your willingness to put up with any crap for any time that your life span might exceed the TTSHF number. Played correctly, you can make for real savings losses due to inflation and get a bit even with "the system".

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Rudy Havenstein's avatar

I wasn't aware of this strategy, probably because I pay my debts. I will look it up though!

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G7Doug's avatar

The savings rate topped out 2 years ago with pandemic handouts and inflation topped out 2 years ago with supply chain issues. Corporations successfully used this to manage higher prices while the economy was in flux and that advantage has expired. Absent further stimulus, flat / negative volume growth will soon be met with flat / declining inflation and corporate sales will decelerate faster than most expect, resulting in the next recession.

The kicker: if the Fed keeps rates 4-6% (I think they should) even with a slowing economy, that $500K house that went to $1M 2 years ago, will need to come back to $500K before it's all over. My expectation is that they'll cave and housing won't come back enough to save the current generation of household formation.

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G7Doug's avatar

“Maybe the real yield is wrong.” - Paulo

Also Paulo: "handshakes"

Trust works both ways and the corrupted will use it to their advantage.

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G7Doug's avatar

Paulo Macro: do you start with the cartoon, or the quote? Your ability to bring disparate media together to make a point is 2nd to none, kinda like your venn-diagram overlap with Kamala Harris and stream of consciousness. Brilliant, Rudy.

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Rudy Havenstein's avatar

Thanks. I searched for the images I had with “Paul” in them (did the same for Shrub) and I had that cartoon so I added the letter “O” to the caption and it seemed to work :)

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Louis's avatar

Glad you’re getting better.

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ESteen's avatar

Thanks for the book recommendation Before the Deluge; it’s fantastic! I also read Stefan Zweig’s book, also excellent.

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John Merrill's avatar

On the strength of Part One, I went on Amazon and bought BtD. I had previously read Shirer (who hasn't?) and Ferguson, but BtD is superb. About half way through, and noting passages you may include in Part Two.

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al m's avatar

"the war against screw worms"! Oh my lord what is going on?

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Bill Mazzacca's avatar

Glad to hear your on the road to recovery. Also, speaking of defense spending, check out this chart on NATO spending: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-1-3t-in-nato-defense-spending/. Seems like influence peddling costs a pretty penny.

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Bill Mazzacca's avatar

I should have known you were on it. Lol.

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